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Santiago Bulat: “I see the Government very firm in not wanting to move the dollar”

Santiago Bulat: “I see the Government very firm in not wanting to move the dollar”

The economist referred to the current value of the dollar, the pressure on the exchange rate and the role of agriculture.

Reuters

He dollar was once again a topic of conversation in Argentina, with the movements that the informal market had in the last week. He economist Santiago Bulat He referred to the topic and summarized that in the national context the following come together: “Low interest rate, little liquidation by dollars and strong profit taking.”

A member of IDEA and the consulting firm Invecq, the economist considered that among the factors that affected the exchange rate were “the issue of liquidation and the pressure they also see from agriculture for a dollar that is no longer yielding them as much“. “The dollar remained fixed, while the rest of the prices rose 100%. One might think that somehow that dollar became cheaper compared to other goods,” he interpreted.

Interviewed on CNN Radio, he maintained that “Argentina is beginning to be very expensive in many goods, but not so in the services part. That can amplify the recession somewhat more, due to certain goods that began to become expensive.” “I think it is the risk of what the government is playing now with this decision, which The only thing they want to do is buy reserves and show fiscal surplus, to which they are tying themselves to show a little more credibility,” he added.

The role of agriculture

In additionSantiago Bulat highlighted the role of agriculture in earning foreign currency: “You see what it has been liquidating so far is close to 8.2 billion dollars, which is much less even than last year.” “In last year there was a drought, to give us an idea of ​​how little has been settled so far. Are fighting for a reduction in withholdings to the wheat that starts the sowing in a short time. He government does not want to give in with the reduction of withholdings, but the field is asking for some kind of sweetener to start liquidating,” he analyzed.

“You still have a restriction which is that Agriculture cannot be financed in pesos as cheaply as the rest of the market. It still has liquidity, that is, it still has some harvest that it has not liquidated, so there you have a greater increase in the costs of financing the field in pesoswhich is a measure that they are going to really try to sustain,” he added as an element.

Finally, he indicated that “They are all waiting to see how sustainable this 2% exchange rate movement isbut I see the government very firm in not wanting to move it“.

The Government does not intervene and “will never intervene”

The reversal of the trend of financial dollars arrived on Thursday around noon. It was sudden and accelerated. From that moment on, rumors spread of alleged government intervention in the market. Whether through own terminals or friendly hands.

Senior sources from the economic team in dialogue with Ambit They categorically denied the versions. “We did not intervene and we will never intervene,” they said. Three qualified market actors accredited the response that came from the Palacio de Hacienda. They detailed that no strange movements were detected in the wheel.

Regardless of what happened this week. The intervention is implicit in the exchange scheme: due to the blend, exporters have already allocated almost US$ 5,000 million that could have gone to the reserves of the Central Bank and not to Cash with Settlement. The International Monetary Fund already puts this on its to-do list.

Source: Ambito

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