The blue dollar suffered a sharp decline on Friday after a week of strong exchange rate tension, with a run that led it to set a new nominal historical high of $1,300. He gave up 60 pesos to close the week at $1,220 for sale.
The blue dollar accumulated eight days of increases in the last 10 and reached $1,300, its maximum nominal value. Then it went down, but in that climb it became $270 more expensive. The exchange rate run occurred after a trend towards calm that had reigned for about four months.
The Government spoke of the market overreacting as a result of the political noise generated by the lack of progress of the Bases law, still stuck in the Senate.
What can happen to the dollar?
Economists anticipate what may happen to the blue dollar:
Federico Zirulnikeconomist Scalabrini Ortiz Study Center (CESO): “The liquidation of exports is the most influential factor in the recent behavior of the CCL. What had been sustaining the stability of the financiers were the dollars that entered through the ‘blend’. Now the liquidation of the coarse harvest should begin but, for now, the dollars don’t appear.”
On the other hand, he pointed out that “there is a vicious circle; if they liquidate more, there is more supply in the CCL and the price drops, which is exactly the opposite of what exporters want.”
Claudio Caprarulochief economist of Analytica: “From the consulting firm We had already warned about a possible overheating of the blue dollar and financiers given the delay that the contributions had been showing in the face of inflation. Even so, the increase may find a ceiling in the recession “given that the sharp contraction suffered by sales and salaries acts as an anchor since it removes available liquidity to go towards the dollar.”
Claudio Zuchovicki, one of the most listened to economic analysts in the city of Buenos Aires: “There have been three consecutive days of strong purchases by the Central Bank of the official dollar. If the fear is whether there could be an exchange rate run here or a surge in the dollar, It leaves me calmer that the official dollar is still a buyer and the BCRA continues to rebuild reserves“.
“The dollar, for me, has always been a manifestation of a state of mind, and when you suspect or worry, you cover up, so you should not underestimate its behavior,” he added.
Gustavo Quintana, from PR Change Operators: “We are in a process of rearranging prices as a result of the rate cuts ordered by the BCRA. Investments in pesos have lost attractiveness and, consequently, there is a transfer of investors who return to take a position in Dollars”.
Christian Buteler, economist: “All exchange rates are rising and this is logical considering that Inflation from November to today was 120% and the dollar rose around 30%/35%. The drop in rates was what finally justified this rapid rise and, although it is not a movement to be alarmed, we must see how it evolves because it is not possible to have daily jumps of the order of 5%.
FocusEconomics: Prior to the run, the renowned consulting firm projected a blue for the second quarter of $1,181, $1,424 for the third, and $1,662 for the fourth.
Source: Ambito
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