The keys to the market: bets on rate cuts and the US employment report

The keys to the market: bets on rate cuts and the US employment report

In yesterday’s session, Wall Street’s main stock indices closed in green. Carnival Corporation (CCL) rose more than +5% and was the biggest percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Peel Hunt upgraded the stock to “Buy from Hold.”

Reuters

The futures of S&P 500 are increasing +0.3% this Wednesday after a positive session on Tuesday, as a decline in US job openings strengthened the Federal Reserve’s rate cut betswith investors’ focus now turning to ADP national employment data expected later in the day.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major stock indices closed in the green. Carnival Corporation (CCL) rose more than +5% and was the biggest percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Peel Hunt upgraded the stock to “Buy from Hold.”

Additionally, Honeywell International (HON) rose more than +2% and was the biggest percentage gainer in the Dow after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. Additionally, Healthequity (HQY) gained more than +2% after the company reported upbeat first-quarter results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Bath & Body Works (BBWI) plunged more than -12% and was the biggest percentage loser in the S&P 500 after the specialty retailer issued below-consensus second-quarter EPS guidance.

A Labor Department report on Tuesday showed U.S. JOLT job openings fell to a 3-year low of 8.059 million in April, weaker than the expected 8.37 billion. At the same time, April US factory orders rose +0.7% m/m, in line with expectations.

Evidence is mounting that the Fed should start easing“said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard.

Interest rate futures

Meanwhile, US interest rate futures have priced in a 0% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the June policy meeting and a 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the July meeting. Additionally, US interest rate futures have built in a 55.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the conclusion of the Fed meeting in September.

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Reuters

On the earnings front, notable companies like Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Campbell Soup (CPB), and Five Below (FIVE) are scheduled to report their quarterly numbers today. Today, all eyes are on the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast the ADP May Nonfarm Employment Change to come in at 173K, up from the previous number of 192K

US Crude Oil Inventories data will also be reported today. Economists estimate this figure to be -2.1 billion, compared to last week’s value of -4.156 million. In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is at 4.346%, up +0.30%.

Source: Ambito

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