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Key week in the market for the Government: what do analysts see?

Key week in the market for the Government: what do analysts see?

A new week focused on political issues waiting for Congress to begin debating the Bases law and the fiscal package promoted by the ruling party, days after the opposition vote gave way to an increase in retirements that complicates the fiscal plan of Javier Milei.

The President, who will travel to Europe on Wednesday to participate in the G7 Summitseeks to have its measures approved to validate its proposals, although they must be reviewed again by the Chamber of Deputies after possible changes.

“In the next weeks, The market will closely follow both political and economic/financial issues. Politically, we continue to wait for the final outcome of the Bases law and the fiscal package, with the latter key to the intentions of consolidating public accounts with a little more force,” said the SBS Group.

He added that “meanwhile, export settlement flows will be closely followed, given their effect on the CCL and the consequent impact on the rest of the macroeconomic variables, in a context in which the reductions in nominal rates reduced the attractiveness of the ‘carry trade‘”.

“It is not the opposition that has the obligation to facilitate the management of the ruling party, but it is the government that must convince and negotiate with the opposition so that it accompanies it in its fundamental laws,” the analyst estimated. Christian Butler.

After the strong fiscal adjustment of 2024, with a preponderance of salary and retirement liquefaction and strong cuts in public works and transfers to provinces, in addition to the reduction in spending on rate subsidies, the great challenge for 2025 is to maintain the fiscal balance even with a possible elimination of the PAIS tax, and with a spending adjustment that relies more on long-term state reforms“said the Mediterranean Foundation.

“It must be remembered that the PAIS tax (for the purchase of foreign currency) provides resources for 1.5% of GDP in 2024, but it was established in an extraordinary manner, loses validity at the end of the year, and is highly distorting and incompatible with a possible exit of the exchange rate,” he explained.

“The year will probably close with a relatively balanced bilateral trade balance (with Brazil), with some specific months of (moderate) bilateral deficit towards the end of the year, in line with the tepid recovery of domestic demand,” the consulting firm estimated. ABC.

“The lack of definition of the monetary regime to which it converges in a vaguely announced second stage of the program – the dynamics of the process by which one goes from the first to the second stage is completely undefined – reduces expectations of a prompt and important flow of investment long-term commitment to Argentina, beyond what arises from second-hand purchases,” he said Juan Luis Boureconomist at FIEL.

“Without voluntary credit – with country risk greater than 1,500 bp – and limited or no net inflow of capital, any forecast of an expansive second half of the year sounds too speculative,” he said.

“The administration of Javier Milei’s government resembles the game of Jenga, where every decision and move must be carefully considered to avoid collapse. With a fragile foundation, lack of legislative support and an unbalanced focus on external promotion over internal management , the government is facing a great economic depression without clear signs of recovery,” estimated the analyst Marcelo Trovato.

“The current financial turbulence can delay the recovery of economic activity, because the uncertainty that is being generated in the market does a lot of damage to the activity, and to investments since it generates doubts in companies,” said the economist. Miguel Kiguelin a seminar organized by Puente.

“It will be a slow exit, which will occur as people’s purchasing power improves, as there is more purchasing power, and credit reappears. The second part of the year is very complicated in terms of the payments that the country must face. I believe that Argentina’s Achilles’ heel is not due to the fiscal aspect, it is not due to the willingness to pay. It is because Argentina needs more dollars. The situation is better, but we are still weak,” he said.

“At the local level we will know the inflation for May on Thursday, it was 289.40% year-on-year during April. In addition, the focus will continue in the Senate where the Base Law and the fiscal package will be voted on Wednesday,” he recalled. Balanz.

“The prospects are that the government must adapt its plans by admitting greater devaluation and inflation, as well as increasing interest rates, in order to, in the best of cases, achieve an improvement by managing the situation,” he estimated. VatNet Financial Research and stated that “if they do not see a similar reaction occurring, the situation could become very challenging.”

Source: Ambito

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