Bonds or shares: the city is analyzing what it is best to bet on after the Bases law

Bonds or shares: the city is analyzing what it is best to bet on after the Bases law
Bonds or shares: the city is analyzing what it is best to bet on after the Bases law

The context of Argentine “equity”

Since the assumption of Javier Mileihe S&P Merval in dollars exhibited an outstanding performance, registering an increase of approximately 24.5% measured in dollars at Cash With Settlement (CCL). Although it is still far from its historical highs (area of ​​US$1,800 in Feb-18, approximately US$2,200 adjusted for inflation).

That’s why, since Inviu They raise the question of what is better, whether to go towards the fixed income or variable income. When evaluating the risk-return relationship in comparison with country risk, an above-average level of equity in dollars is observed. “If the historical correlation is respected going forward, there is a possibility that the Country Risk and/or the Merval adjust downwards“, they slide from the Broker’s Research area.

The brokerage firm’s perspective is that there is a possibility of a downward correction for both the BYMA stock index and the country risk in the short term (a good one for bonds), seeing greater probability in the latter. “Although in bullish market environments, investment flow can dominate the trend, sometimes ignoring fundamental logic,” he warns.

As for the local stock market, he adds that the projection is that the S&P Merval will continue to experience volatility in the coming months. because eyes will be on the strength of economic recovery.

The impetus of the Bases law and the May Pact

For Inviu, in a context where the Bases law with modifications, with a May Pact without much significance and a partial fiscal balance without any significant improvement in the quality of the adjustment, as well as with an economic rebound that is not so pronounced, a country risk of approximately 1,000 basis points could be projectedand this “allows a certain appreciation of the bonds, although limited due to the moderate improvement in risk perception and the economic environment”.

For Gustavo Neffapartner of Research for Traderswith the Bases law already approved, the exchange rate should converge to more stable values ​​for give the Government some peace of mind in the short term. This, adds the strategist, should be accompanied by an increase in the recovery of reserves that slowed down in June, as mentioned in the first lines of this note.

However, Neffa warns that, although the agricultural sector is liquidating, “There are coming months of lower net accumulation (reserves) due to commitments to pay in dollars, but all this in a context of greater optimism, because the Government is going to have its first laws approved and that will give it certain legitimacy and political consensus. Good signs for the market.

The strategy behind the law Bases on fixed income

According to the latest report from the consulting firm 1816, the linked dollar bond TZVD5maturing in December 2025 and placed on auction yesterday with an Annual Equilibrium Rate (TEA) of -8.79%, presents certain challenges in terms of valuation.

In the most favorable scenario, if it is assumed that there will be a devaluation and that the exchange rate will be eliminated in the second half of 2024, the exchange rate set by Communication “A” 3500 would have to be considerably high for this bonus is competitive with a Lecap.

In comparison, synthetics dollar linked built with CER or Lecap 2025 bonds and futures are more attractive. For example, at Wednesday’s close, a combination of Mar-25 Lecap with Mar-25 futures offered an TEA of DL+0.6%. However, these synthetics face the problem of low depth in long-term futures.

At Rofex, the open interest of all contracts expiring in 2025 barely exceeded US$100 million. If this restriction is not significant, it is possible to seek higher performance by arming the synthetics with CERwhich provides an additional rate if inflation for the remainder of 2024 exceeds the 4.3% monthly average that equals the TEA of the T2X5 with that of the Lecap January.

Dollar and investments

These strategies do not necessarily require a devaluation in 2024 to bear fruit in the short term; “the market only needs to seek coverage via dollar linked, as it usually does in the second half of the year,” adds 1816.

For portfolios without exchange rate restrictions, The consulting firm maintains a positive view regarding global bondsconsidering that, despite the impact of the fiscal adjustment and relative prices on economic activity, citizens continue to support a pro-market Government very committed to the fiscal surplus.

Curve of sovereigns 1816.png

In this sense, the consultancy prioritizes the long stretch of the curvewhich, due to its lower parities, offers greater coverage than the global GD30 and GD29 in the event that Argentina returns to “distress” territory, “while still having greater upward potential if the sovereign yield curve normalizes.”

At current prices, the attractiveness of Global 2041 (GD41) over 2035 (GD35) stands out, due to its lower parity and better contract.Although the GD35 has more flow in the coming years, the GD41 offers greater contractual securitysomething to consider in the event of a scenario of normalization of access to international credit by the sovereign,” they say.

On national equity

From Inviu the recommendation It is about being selective in the papers you choose to invest in., as this can make a difference. “This is the main recommendation we can make,” adds the broker, who warns that “we are not discouraging the purchase of ‘equity’ so much as the coverage of all sectors.”

Among the sectors with the greatest potential identified by Inviu, the oil sector stands out, where YPF and Vista are positioned as the main playersand energy, with companies such as Transportadora de Gas del Sur, Pampa Energía and Central Puertowhich offer interesting prospects for investors looking to diversify their portfolios.

Particularly, we see that some of the companies we mentioned are lagging behind their peers, even within the local market, as is the case of YPF.“, they conclude.

In that same line it is expressed Neffa, who focuses on the roles of financial entities such as Banco Macro, but also on “utilities”, through Transportadora de Gas del Sur, with a “more than interesting” expansion project. He also recommends not falling off the radar View which should sooner or later recover the maximums it was able to reach based on good production figures and a rising oil price.

Source: Ambito

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