Reserves alert: MEP and CCL surge could lead to a new dollar drain for the BCRA

The financial dollars soaring and of the blue of the last few days, as a result of the difficulty of the Central Bank (BCRA) to buy reserves and the devaluation pressure that the market is exerting, is beginning to cause concern because it threatens to open a new front of foreign exchange loss for the monetary regulator through the dollar card.

“Today, a large part of the payments for services abroad They were made with the financial dollar that was being dumped from exports. With the change, it could now encourage greater purchases from the formal segment, increasing both the pressure on the accumulation of reserves,” he warns in this regard Ambit he Economist at Eco Go Sebastian Menescaldi.

And it is that, although The possibility of paying expenses abroad with a dollar card is valid, as is the $200 dollar savings quotaduring the current administration, these exchange rates had lost their appeal for Argentines because of the price difference with the MEP, CCL and blue, which were much more affordable.

To give an example of this phenomenon, we can mention that, after the blue rate soared, the gap with the card dollar fell to levels prior to the December devaluation.

Dollar card vs. MEP and blue

But, returning to the financial ones, with the surge of the last few days, which brought the MEP to almost $1,430, which is the sale value that the informal marked this Tuesday, the possibility of paying with a dollar card is again cheaper than the stock market and the blue. Meanwhile, the dollar card or touristand the dollar savings (either solidary) $1,492.80, but with the deductions for Income Tax and Personal Property Tax that can be recovered, the price is very similar to that of financial institutions.

This is what he put forward, in fact, in a post on his social network X (former Twitter) the economist Miguel Kiguel. “With the increase in the gap and, taking into account the perceptions, today again It is cheaper to buy tourist dollars than to pay with MEP dollars“Turn that tap back on,” the tweet reads.

This is a problem that is of particular concern at this time given that, although it managed to buy US$52 million in the first day of July and US$2 million in the second, The BCRA ended June with a negative balance of US$84 million in the official exchange market and has been having trouble collecting reserves lately.

“If the card and tourist dollar become attractive, demand may increase and that may have an impact on reserves, complicating the Central Bank’s accumulation process,” says Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de cambio.

Thus, as he points out the economist Pedro Gaite“this The risk of increasing use of the dollar card is an issue that requires attention “forward” and comments that tourism is becoming increasingly deficient in Argentina. “This has to do with the real exchange rate and the gap with the card. If the evolution of the financial markets continues and there are no changes in the card dollar, it would be a significant risk,” he warns. And he points out that, if travel spending is transferred to the card dollar, the dynamic could become worrying.