Dollar jump effect: Cedears outperformed stocks in volume and there are more traders

The volume of Cedears (foreign assets quoted in pesos) had a turning point in June and began to accelerate, surpassing that of the shares of Argentine companies on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, which had been leading the amount traded in variable income in the first months of the year. This happened in line with the greater exchange rate volatility, that they recorded parallel exchange rates.

So, for example, this Friday The volume of Cedears was $39,696 million, compared to $20,344 million for Argentine shares. This dynamic was reversed in the first months of the year, when The parallel dollars remained practically without major variations, until they began to wake up towards the end of May.

“Until a month ago, you had a very large volume of Argentine stocks compared to Cedears,” Told him Ignacio Sniechowskihead of research at IEB Group to Ambit and added: “This was the opposite of what happened last year when the Cedears were the most traded in variable income, but In recent weeks it has turned around again and now there is more volume in these instruments.“.

“Clearly has to do with searching for coverage. We have to see what happens with the dollar going forward; but today There is a much greater appetite than during the first trimester and half of the second. Let’s say there is a turning point in June.“, he expressed Sniechowski. Among the most traded Cedears in the last week are: S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Coca-Cola (KO), NVIDIA (NVDA), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Vista (VIST).

Cedears vs. shares: what was the trend?

According to data published by the Argentine Institute of Capital Markets (IAMC), Stock trading volume grew 43% in May compared to Aprilaccording to the latest published data, and 922% year-on-year. While Cedears volume expanded 31% in May compared to April and 259% year-on-year. With these figures, we can see that, Until May, the trend was that the volume of shares grew more than that of Cedears.

“The appetite of investors for Argentine assets was very important. In fact, the volume of shares grew almost three times more than that of the Cedears,” he told this media. Emilse Cordobadirector at Stock Market Bell.

For the expert, “This year-on-year growth is associated with the change of cycle and political sign”. He also stressed that “The monthly expansion has been very significant in recent times and, taking into account the political aspect, it surely responds to investment coverage.” In this case, Córdoba referred to everything that is variable income.

“If we compare the volume growth in fixed income, which was only 25%, we still see a greater evolution in Argentine stocks”he noted regarding the May data. IAMC has not yet released the official figures for June.

Cedears vs. shares: which ones offer currency coverage?

“If I have to choose which one provides greater coverage of the dollar, for investment purposes, I choose Cedears over Argentine stocks because They have less risk. You are trading on the US stock exchange, with an international risk. and you are not with the local market, which has had many financial problems,” he told Ambit, Fernando Dirazarco-founder Del Sur Capital Markets.

For its part, for Sniechowski “if you are looking for coverage” in what are the Cedears recommends choosing an ETF based on an index or one whose underlying asset is not very volatile. In this regard, he recommended: Coca-Cola (KO), Dow Jones (DIA) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB). As far as Argentine stocks are concerned, the most used to dollarize, he recalled, are always Aluar and Ternium.