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With the blue dollar unstoppable, the city’s verdict: buy, sell or wait?

With the blue dollar unstoppable, the city’s verdict: buy, sell or wait?
With the blue dollar unstoppable, the city’s verdict: buy, sell or wait?

He Dolar blue climbs $25 this Monday, July 8, and comes from rising $55 last week. Thus, The gap with the official is 57.15%reaches a new nominal record, after surpassing the price of $1,430 that it reached on July 2, and The average saver is unsure of what steps to take. It happens that it comes with such a furious bullish streak that it is difficult to decide. When is it time to buy and when to sell?.

It seems that the signals that the Government insistently givestrying to please the market, are not enough. Neither the Bases law and the fiscal package, nor the announcement of the transfer of debt from the Central Bank (BCRA) to the Treasury, nor the arrival of Federico Sturzenegger manage to calm the bullish rally of the dollar. The market analyzes supply and demand and plays its devaluation expectation as well as the date of the lifting of the cepo.

In this context, the big question every time a new nominal record is set is whether it has reached its ceiling and it is time to take advantage of the gains or whether there is still room for improvement and it is better to invest in that market.

Blue dollar: will it continue to rise?

For him economist Jorge Neyro, “It is clear that in the short term we are likely to see a slightly downward trend in the blue accompanied by the stock market dollars.” This is what he points out to AmbitAnd it is to be expected that, after such an abrupt jump, as the one seen in recent times, It is expected that there will be a readjustment down at some point.

He anticipates that this does not imply that volatility may appear, since It should be noted that the blue dollar process is usually not so linear. and this time will not be the exception.

Christiann Buteler, economist specializing in marketsmeanwhile, believes that, beyond the fluctuations that may occur, the dollar will rise in the remainder of the year. “It is unpredictable whether we will see the dollar at lower values ​​in the short term, but, for now, for me, whoever wants to have dollar bills could continue buying them.”

Blue dollar without a ceiling: what to do

For its part, Federico Glustein, economist, agrees that “it is a dilemma what to do.” He warns that, “today, The blue dollar has no ceiling”but the price seems expensive and the pesos are going somewhere, obviously, towards the greenback.

In this scenario, for Glustein It’s time to wait“I think that the current moment is one of uncertainty, so, for me, we have to wait because the opportunity cost is very high and I don’t think the current situation will provide much room for improvement in the short term,” he says.

Along the same lines, Gustavo Quintana, from PR Exchange Operators, when he tells this medium that “we have to wait.” This is because the market exhibits a lot of volatility and “does not register a very defined trend.” Thus, in an uncertain context, clearly, the best thing is to wait and see if it stabilizes at a price similar to the current one or corrects downwardsas usually happens after such a strong jump.

Take deadlines into account when deciding whether or not to buy dollars

And for many analysts, It is not advisable to buy an asset when it is in the middle of a strongly bullish trend. because you run the risk of paying a high price for it. And, on the other hand, it is difficult to establish whether it will not cost less in a few days. Thus, both financial assets and the blue dollar are assets with too much volatility today to bet on them.

In short, also You have to take into account the timeframes in which you will need to sell the dollars that you would buy today. when making a decision in this regard. If you buy today, in the middle of the rise and have to sell in a few days, the opportunity cost is higher. On the other hand, whoever wants to buy to save in the longer term will surely end up winning even though today it seems that the dollar is expensive, given that the forward trend still seems to be bullish.

Source: Ambito

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