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Dollar, inflation and GDP: the forecast of 40 gurus for the coming months

Dollar, inflation and GDP: the forecast of 40 gurus for the coming months
Dollar, inflation and GDP: the forecast of 40 gurus for the coming months

Its about July survey of FocusEconomicswhere it can be observed that the forecasts for the price of wholesale dollar in the midst of a monthly devaluation of 2% set by the Government. As for inflation, the downward trend continues, although at a high level.

Inflation: How will it be for the rest of the year?

“This year, the Average inflation will be the highest in Latin America due to the removal of price controls and the weakening of official and parallel exchange rates. A weaker than expected currency is an upside risk,” the experts detail.

The surveyed analysts expect that the Consumer prices are expected to rise by an average of 236.1% in 2024, down 11.3 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.

“He Government will need to control inflation and, at the same time, lift exchange controls and capital “to ensure a lasting economic recovery,” the economists said in the FocusEconomics report.

GDP: No change to growth forecast

Regarding the activity, The same course is expected as in the previous survey.. Meanwhile, on the side of expected annual inflation, a slight decrease is expected compared to the result of the June survey. In this regard, the FocusEconomics panelists GDP is expected to contract by 3.3% in 2024, unchanged compared to what was forecast a month ago. On the inflation side, the trend will be similar to what was expected a few months ago, and will be tied to the direction of the exchange rate

“The economy will contract this year due to fiscal adjustment and rising inflation. However, activity will be supported by increased energy production from the Vaca Muerta field, improved weather that will boost the agricultural sector, and the recent approval of the Government’s reform bill (Ley Bases). Social unrest and judicial challenges to the Executive’s reforms are downside risks to activity,” the report concludes.

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Focus Economics surveys the main variables of the economy with 40 banks and financial analysts.

How much will the dollar be in December?

The consensus reached by the surveyed economists reveals that the Official wholesale exchange rate will reach $1,276 at the end of next December, which represents a decrease of 55 pesos compared to the report published last month for the same date. If this value is reached, the The wholesale price of tickets will increase by 57.8% throughout the year, a level much lower than the expected inflation of 236%.

Regarding the official exchange rate, economists maintain that it is noticeably lagging behind and that the slow devaluation (crawling peg) of 2% per month is becoming very “short”.

In short, it is expected that the official wholesale dollar “depreciates further at the end of 2024”, warns the international document.

The market consensus price for the end of the year is $1,276 exceeds by about 100 pesos the estimates of the Market Expectations Survey (REM), published at the beginning of the month by the Central Bank and in which it surveyed 37 experts, where $1,174 is expected for December.

Regarding operations carried out in the Matba-Rofex futures and options market, the negotiated price for the wholesale exchange rate for next December is $1,196, a value similar to the REM and the level negotiated a month ago.

The highest quote estimates for the Official wholesale dollar for the end of December They are led by S&P Global Ratings, with $1,700, followed by the national consulting firm LCG ($1,663), Capital Economics ($1,600) and Econviews, with $1,560.

Those who foresee a The lowest dollar are Pezco Economics ($944.5), Torino Capital ($946.3), Banco Supervielle ($1,018) and Banctrust & Co ($1,019).

Source: Ambito

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