On the day after the announcements, the blue dollar fell $85 to $1,415 for sale and moved away from its historical nominal record of $1,500. For its part, the dollar “counted with liquid” (CCL) also fell sharply: it sank 8.5% to reach the $1,307.18 and the gap with the official exchange rate it fell back to 41.6%. The dollar MEPin turn, fell by 7.7% to $1,307.54 and the gap approached 40%.
“This decline responds to expectations: specifically to the prospect that the Government has the artillery to go out and sell dollars in the MEP and CCL markets. In this first round, it seemed to be highly effective. However, We have not even seen the first day of trading yet, since the buying or selling balance that the BCRA will have is not known. With everything, It is expected that this week the parallel dollars will fall“, he told Ambit, Joel Lupierieconomist of EPyCA Consultants.
Specifically, what happened on this day was that The Government began to intervene in the cash settlement market to try to reduce the gap with the wholesale market, which closed last week at around 60%. The formula used is the following: The BCRA may sell foreign currency in the exchange rate financial market (CCL) to sterilize the issuance resulting from the purchase of foreign currency in the official exchange market.
In this way, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, announced that it will neutralize the amount of pesos previously issued to buy foreign currency from the external sector.
“The parallels have fallen sharply understanding two issues: the monetary base has been frozen at current levels and for that, the dollars that the BCRA buys in the MULC will be sold, that is, it is a warning to the market that there will be some intervention. And, on the other hand, that The maturity of Globales and Bonares will be with a surplus but at the cost of a greater adjustmentwith less output and less revenue. That is why the reaction of the fall in bonds and stocks, which is a bad sign for the market,” the economist told this media Federico Glustein.
In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Economy also announced that it will proceed to purchase from the BCRA, the currencies required to meet the full payment of interest on the Globales and Bonares bonds maturing in January 2025. This operation will be carried out with part of the pesos corresponding to the financial surplus achieved in the first half of the year, which accumulated to May amounted to $2.3 billion.
CCL, blue and MEP dollars: how far can they go?
For Glusteinthe dollars should fall to levels of $1,300“to regain confidence” although they will probably “first break that floor” to be above $1,200, which would be the logical value“. “The exit from the currency controls could be accelerated due to positive expectations, but we would have to wait for the recovery of bonds and, in part, find a value,” he concluded.
To its turn, Lupierihe said: “In my opinion $1,300 /$1,350will be a floor for prices. I believe this, even if we can see how the price partially breaks through these values.”
Finally, the economist Gustavo Ber He added: “I think they could compress in these first rounds, waiting to see how the implementation progresses, up to $1,250, which would represent a gap of around 30%.”
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
