The market will be watching the dollar, reserves and the possible intervention of the Central Bank in the exchange market. The second stage of the Caputo plan begins today.
He market faces a decisive week in which a rate hike by the Central Bank (BCRA) is not ruled out after an agreement with the banks to cancel 13.17 billion pesos (about 14.24 billion dollars) in liquidity option contracts (puts) to eliminate another source of monetary expansion. The measures focus on the second stage of the economic stabilization plan that the government intends to Javier Milei.
“This operation (of repurchasing puts) contributes significantly to the process of cleaning up the monetary authority’s balance sheeteliminates a potential issuance risk and paves the way for lifting foreign exchange restrictions,” said clearing and settlement agent Cohen.
dollar pesos
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LEFI debuts: what impact is expected?
“Today the Fiscal Letters debut in replacement of the passes and Leliqs The novelty is that now the Treasury will be the one to provide liquidity to the economy, if the demand for money increases and the banks do not renew these bills. The non-novelty is that regardless of how the cost is accounted for (BCRA or Treasury) it continues to be there and is an impediment to freely raising rates,” he added. Roberto Geretto from Fundcorp.
“The focus will be on the political sphere where announcements about the new monetary policy will be expected,” said clearing and settlement agent Balanz.Investors continue to analyze whether the significant monetary advancestogether with the strategy to reduce the (exchange rate) “gap”, could be shaping the path towards a gradual exit from the currency controls in the coming months, a milestone that generates great expectations,” the economist added. Gustavo Ber.
Dollar: the focus is on the intervention of the BCRA
“The exchange rate gap decreased but at the same time the country risk increasedthat is, the parity of external debt bonds was affected, it fell, precisely because of the perception of this phenomenon: if the Central Bank is going to use more reserves to keep the gap under controlmay have fewer dollars by the time external debt payments are due,” said economist Jorge Vasconcelos.
“Among all the complex factors and balances of the current situation, “We understand that the first priority is to achieve the recurrent accumulation of reserves by the BCRA,” said VatNet Financial Research.The possible use of gold deposited in the BCRA for collateralized credit operations could help strengthen the Central Bank’s liquidity “when the government moves forward with the easing of the restrictions,” concluded Delphos Investment.
Source: Ambito
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