From the Ministry of Economy They highlighted that the devaluation projections of the analysts converge at a rate of 2% that is supported by the analysts who participate in the REM Market Expectations Survey (REM) that is published every month by the Central Bank (BCRA).
This was expressed by the advisor of the Ministry of Economy Federico Furiase through his account on the social network “X” (formerly Twitter). “Expect REM p/ FX Dec24 continue to fall sharply and converge to the crawling of 2%,” said Furiase. And he assured that this implies that the REM expectations for the exchange rate in December fall and converge with the ‘crawling peg’“.
He added that the current exchange rate projection December 2024 is 36% below that of January 2024 and concluded that this dynamic is “key to core disinflation.”
Consequently, in Economics they believe that The market accepts that the crawling peg rate will be met proposed, despite the fact that he repeatedly asked the Government to adjust the evolution of the official dollar.
REM: What the City predicted about the dollar, inflation, and GDP
In the seventh survey of the year, Those who participated in the REM estimated a monthly inflation of 3.9% for Julyalmost one percentage point below the previous forecast. For August they projected a monthly inflation of 3.8% and for the year 127.4% year-on-year (-0.9 pp and -10.7 pp compared to the previous survey, respectively).
In the July survey, The REM group of analysts projected a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level for 2024 that will be 3.7% lower than the 2023 averagematching the perspective with respect to the previous survey.
The median of the REM nominal exchange rate projections stood at $942.5 for the average of August 2024, which would imply an average monthly increase of 2.0% of the exchange rate. For the Top 10, the average nominal exchange rate expected for August is $942.6. For December, the group of participants forecasts a nominal exchange rate of $1,088.2.
Source: Ambito
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