Polymarket predicts a nail-biting finale to the US November elections. Both candidates Harris and Trump have a chance of winning the White House, so the final weeks will be decisive.
For his part, Robert Kennedy Jr. is at a disadvantage, with a -1% chance.
According to the latest data from the blockchain-based market prediction platform, Polymarketthe former president Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris are in a technical tie in the electoral race for 2024. This turn in the competition comes after President Joe Biden’s announcement that he will not seek reelection in November, which had initially given Trump an advantage over Harris.
Chances of the rectorship: a heart-stopping ending
This Friday, Polymarket reflects a tight race, with Trump and Harris tied at 49% odds of winning, according to current betting rates. Former first lady Michelle Obama, although she has not expressed any intention to run, maintains a 1% chance. For its part, RObert Kennedy Jr.. is at a disadvantage, with a -1% chance.
Statistics by State
In key states, where the election could lean towards either candidateTrump and Harris are evenly matched, each leading in three crucial states. Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, while Harris is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Overall, Trump has a slight advantage with a 51% chance of winning the presidency. However, the Republican Party is projected to have a 72% chance of controlling the Senate.
Contrasting projections
The House of Representatives, according to Polymarket, will likely fall to the Democrats. However, oddsmakers are predicting a GOP presidential victory by a margin in the electoral college. In comparison, in Predictit.orgHarris leads with a 57% chance, while Trump has a 47%. Covers.com predicts a Trump victory with a 56% probability, and Betohio estimates Trump has a 59% chance as of August 8.
United States elections 2020.jpg
Courtesy: New York Times
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Prediction markets like Polymarket offer a dynamic and ever-changing view of public sentiment and election probabilitiesThese platforms not only reflect fluctuations in political campaigns, but also strategic positioning in the months leading up to the November elections.
With decisive states at stake and divergent projections across platforms, the path to victory appears to be a complex mosaic of voter preferences and electoral strategies.
Source: Ambito
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