What’s next for the blue dollar: the three keys that will mark its course in September

If current levels continue, The blue dollar could end August with a drop in its price compared to July. Since it reached a maximum of $1,500 in July, the informal bill began to gradually fall and is currently trading sideways at the level of $1,350. Specialists consulted reveal what they believe the price will be during September and also, what news will impact its value.

For the economist Gustavo Berparallel exchange rates “will remain calm, within the limited range of oscillations.” Your colleague Federico Glustein He points out: “If official intervention is maintained in We financiers could have MEP and CCL between $1250 and $1300 with a difference that I suppose will be shortened with the blue dollar “since under these conditions there is no sign of reaching new ceilings again.”

Key 1: Blue dollar and Country Tax

“We will have to analyze the impact of the IMF review initiallythe eventual removal of the extra 10% of the COUNTRY TAXhe partial lifting of the cepo as well as political schemes and problems that may arise in the context and that may impact the price,” he told this media Glustein.

The expectation for the reduction of the PAIS tax is a key issue for next month. The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, confirmed that in September This tribute will drop from the current 17.5 to 7.5%. “This will contribute to “inflation goes down”he expressed in the last few hours.

According to Ambito, If the measure is implementedif today’s values ​​are taken, The import dollar will fall from the current $1.107 a $1,013. And, in turn, it will generate two effects: on the one hand, it will lower the pressure on the prices of imported products; on the other hand, Payment for purchases abroad through the official market is expected to increase.

Key 2: Blue dollar, BCRA and accumulation of reserves

“The calm in parallel exchange rates could be altered if there is an acceleration in imports after the next reduction of the PAIS tax, which “stop the purchases that the BCRA has been making so far this month”he explained to ScopeGustavo Ber.

It should be noted that the BCRA has been buying foreign currency for 12 consecutive days, which implies a positive streak in which it managed to accumulate a balance of US$538 million so far this month.

“The route of the reserves and The need for foreign currency can directly affect the quotations of parallel currencies since there is a shortagethe market will observe the lack of dollars for commitments and will strain the situation by pushing it up,” he said. Glustein.

Key 3: Blue dollar and lifting of the currency controls

A report from the City circulating these hours, analyzed: “Still It could be thought that the Government wants to release the restrictions this year. and that everything he says is to get the market to lower its guard and not act ahead of time. But the rhetoric is increasingly forceful, and when the President says that it is a lie that with a clamp, growth cannot be achieved, it is possible that it is because the economic team genuinely believes that the end justifies the shackles and that a premature (and risky) disarmament of capital controls must be avoided.”

According to this paperthe latest economic measures (the Central Bank intervening in the MEP and the promise to lower the PAIS tax without compensating with an increase in the official dollar), They reinforce the perception that the chances of seeing a liberalization of the exchange rate in the very short term are increasingly smaller.

In turn, Glustein recalled, Around $14 billion of Lecaps are due, which the Government would need to “roll over” to avoid problems and accelerate exchange rates.