Perhaps one of the most common financial doubts among Argentines is whether or not it is time to buy dollars. That is why experts give their opinion on the current price of the foreign currency.
The MEP dollar started the year at $990 and is currently close to $1,285, which implies a 30% increase in the year-to-date, a lower return even than that of fixed-term deposits in the same period (close to 55%). Although both figures are below inflation in the same period, the truth is that during the year, the so-called “Stock Market” dollar operated with some volatility, which led the Government to announce an intervention in the markets in July. However, Dollarizing investors’ savings or portfolios is always a recurring question.
For Manuel Ilzarbefinancial asset analyst at Wise Capital, it is not a good time to buy MEP dollars, given that the current trend is downwards“We believe that the policies implemented by the Government will generate an increase in the demand for pesos, driven by money laundering and the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). This could lead the parallel dollars to approach $1,200. In this context, It is more convenient to carry out a ‘carry trade’ with bills, and then dollarize our portfolio when the price reaches a level around $1,200.“.
For his part, the financial analyst Christian Buteler He indicated that if one is thinking It is always better to dollarize your portfolio when the dollar is calm or falling. and not go out and pay any price. “It is clear that the dollar at these values, at least, is not expensive,” he said. In this regard, he recalled that, since the intervention, The dollar fell to $1,250 and rebounded from there. “Timing is very difficult, to decide whether it is better today or whether it is better in a week,” he said.
For Buteler, The dollar will have an upward trend, at least as long as the currency controls are maintained. “It will recover part of what was lost in the first half of the year against inflation, so should rise more than inflationIf you are thinking about dollarizing your portfolio, These values are acceptable. The MEP at less than $1,300 is not a bad price,” he said in an interview with this media outlet.
MEP dollar: what news impacts its price
For the economist Gustavo Berat this time, Flows from money laundering, tax obligations, carry trade and current needs for pesos continue to extend the calm in financial dollars. This happens while the market monitors the evolution of the disinflation process given that the next challenge, according to this expert, would be a convergence to the “crawling-peg”.
Currently, the MEP dollar is located around $1,285. The exchange rate It fell by 4% in July and 0.4% in June, although it rose by 14.7% in May. In April it was practically stable (up only 0.6%), and in March it rose 1.1%. In the first part of the year it was volatile: in February it fell 14.2%, and in January it had risen 28.6%.
MEP dollar vs. blue dollar
The blue dollar or the illegal exchange rate has been moving sideways for several days and is sold near the $1,350. The percentage variation between the stock market dollar and the free exchange rate has varied between 3% and 10% in recent weeks.
This, at times, encouraged the creation of a “puréed” dollar, which involves the purchase of MEP dollars and their subsequent sale on the illegal market.
Source: Ambito
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