There are three variables that the Government is closely monitoring and is seeking to converge in the short term. In this regard, experts gave their opinions on what could happen in September.
There are three variables that the Government is closely monitoring and seeking to converge in the short term.
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While the The original plan of the minister, Luis Caputo, is that there is a convergence between inflation, the rate, and the dollar at 2% per monthprivate projections do not yet see that correlation in the short term. That is why, Various analysts have given their opinions on what could happen in September.
Starting with The blue dollar, if it ends the month at the current level of $1,350, the balance would end in negative territorywith a decrease of 1.5% or nominally a loss of $20. For its part, The stock exchange exchange rates would end, almost without variations, both in the order of $1,285.
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Now, if we look at the rate, Fixed-term deposits currently pay an APR of between 40% and 30%, which means a monthly interest rate of 3.3% in the best case. Rates that, in real terms, remain negative if we take into account the inflationary process. Some private projections place the August CPI at around 4%.
September: What to expect regarding the rate, the dollar and inflation
“First of all, everything seems to indicate that The Government is faced with a difficult inflation level of between 3/4%at least that is what market breakevens have been suggesting,” he revealed to Scopethe analyst Andrés Reschini from F2 Financial Solutions.
And he added that “in September, according to what the Government has stated, we will proceed to lower the PAIS tax, which may impact inflation for the month in question and perhaps the next. But it would be a one-time effect. Therefore, I cannot imagine the BCRA lowering the rate or moving the crawling peg, even if the effect of the tax reduction results in a drop in prices.”.
It should be noted that The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, will lower the PAIS Tax from the current 17.5% to 7.5%, starting next month. However, when he announced it, he did not give details about whether the measure would start on the first day of the month. “This will help inflation to fall,” he explained just a few weeks ago.
“It is possible that in September continue the status quo as the data is coming along and there are some data that support the upward trend in economic activityso it is hard to think that there will be some sudden change in the rate or dollar policy of the Central Bank, moreover, if there were, it occurs to me that it is feasible that it will go down“, he told this medium, Joel Lupierieconomist of Epyca.
And he added: “We are going towards a progressive appreciation of the weight which should, at some point, lead to a more thorough approach to the issue of exchange rate lag. I think the relationship between the rate and the dollar will remain the same and inflation will probably remain around 4%.”.
Source: Ambito
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