On Wall Street, the ADRs climbed up to 7.1%while the Sovereign bonds in dollars maintained their upward trend on Thursday, August 29 of the two previous sessions and marked the majority of increases. Thus, the country risk moved away from 1,500 basis points. This happened while the Javier Milei’s veto of the pension reform and fresh flows arrive by money launderinga few days after the reduction of COUNTRY TAX.
As for equities, the S&P Merval rose 2.7% to 1,660,627.62 units. The main gains were made Galicia Financial Group (+6.9%), BBVA Bank (+5.2%) and Macro Bank (+4.8%). On Wall Street, the ADRs climbed up to 7.1%headed by Galicia Financial Group, Macro Bank (+6.1%), and Supervielle Group (+4.3%).
“Argentina was strong all week. Part of it is due to the fact that the United States is expected to begin the rate cut cycle shortly and the advance of money laundering is also influencing the situation.because that pulls a lot of flow,” he told this media, Rafael Di Giorno by profession.
Dollar bonds and country risk
The improvement in dollar bonds was driven by those issued under local law: the largest gains were obtained by the Bonar 2030 (+2.7%), Global 2038 (+2.4%) and Global 2041 (+2.4%). In this context, The country risk measured by JP Morgan fell 2.7%, or 40 points, to 1,444 units.
“For the first time since paying the 07/09 coupon The AL30D is trading above what it was trading on that day adjusted for the accrual of the next coupon. We could say that the market is now more optimistic than the day the previous coupon payment was made,” they said from Aurum Values.
As for the BOPREALES rose up to 1.2% due to the Series IIIbut there was a drop in the number of Series I Class Awhich fell 0.8%.
Bonds and bills in pesos
The Lecaps recorded majority of casualtiesso the only one who advanced was the one who won in January 2025 (+0.1%), and the one that fell the most was the one that wins in February 2025(-1%). Regarding debt CERthe casualties were widespread, with the exception of the PAP0 (+1.5%) and the PARP (+0.2%), so the one who lost the most was the CUAP (-1.4%).
“With the market demanding a higher rate from the MEcon than the curve had been operating in the secondary market, Today, both the fixed rate and the CER curve suffered a significant selloff. In the morning, Lecaps started to be very popular, finding some demand in the afternoon. The inflation-indexed curve had an inverse trend, with some demand in the morning and strong supply in the afternoon. We noticed a lot of ‘swap’ from short to long term in fixed ARS,” he analyzed in this session, Juan Martin Yanzon.
The patterns that the market looks at
Juan Manuel FrancoChief Economist of SBS Group, said that “looking ahead to the coming days, The market will closely watch the dynamics in the MULC following the government’s announcement that it will reduce the PAIS Tax rate for imports of goods and freight from September. We believe that, so far in August, the expectation of this reduction has led to a lower demand for foreign currency by importers, but that it could increase once the lower import dollar has become effective.”
The political plot still plays for the market, since after the approval in Congress of the retirement formula, President Javier Milei’s veto is still expected. “Finally, we will closely monitor the high-frequency inflation data, which indicated that disinflation had lost strength, at least in the first three weeks of August for which we have data from private surveys,” Franco explained.
The Treasury closed August with net financing
On Wednesday, the Treasury obtained financing in pesos for $4.47 billion and was able to renew the $3.61 billion of maturities. Even so, August was the Second month with lowest net financing in 2024.
Again The most popular instruments were the Lecapshighlighting the fact that the Ministry of Economy validated higher rates this time than those on the secondary market. We believe that this increase is due to the objective of trying to achieve the rollover of the maturities. Clearly, as we anticipated, with an active credit channel and a reactivated demand for pesos, bank liquidity has more options and therefore is no longer so captive,” Outlier said in a report.
Source: Ambito
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