August inflation: how much the CPI reached and what is expected in September, according to consulting firms

A little over a week after it was announced August CPIvarious private consulting firms gave their verdict. Most of those surveyed by Scope He agreed that it will be at 3.8%, although some measurements placed it above 4%.

Thus, the survey of retail prices of C&T for the region GBA presented a monthly increase of 3.8% in Augustbelow the 4.5% (revised) in July and the 4% reported by INDEC for that month. With this data, The twelve-month variation was reduced to 238.8%, the lowest so far this year.

“Transportation was the sector with the greatest increase due to the rise in taxi prices in CABA and buses. The rise in fuel and car insurance prices was also highlighted,” they added.

For its part, from Analyticaduring the fourth week of August, recorded a weekly variation of 0.7% in food and beverage prices. Thus, the four-week average is 2.8%. For the general price level, they also projected a monthly increase of 3.8% in August.

Likewise, the consultancy FMyA, He said that inflation in August “was a little more complicated than expected” since the increases in food prices did not fall below 1% weekly according to their calculations. In this context, they warned that core inflation remained around 3.5% and that The general CPI would be at 3.8%, although it could reach 4% again.

In turn, for Orlando Ferreres, the August measurement will be at the level of 3.9%, and the interannual one at 223.9%In turn, the core was measured at 3.6%.

Finally, the CPI prepared by Libertad y Progreso showed an increase of 4.4% in August.which implied an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the official measurement of July (4%). “The key behind this slight increase was the rise in regulated prices. For its part, Core inflation continues its downward trend and reached 3.5%0.3% less than the previous month,” they revealed.

Thus, in the first eight months of the year, the CPI has accumulated an increase of 95.3%. The year-on-year change reached 237.5%, marking the fourth consecutive slowdown.

September: What we can expect regarding inflation

“In September, with the reduction of the PAIS Tax by 10 pp (which implies a 0.7 pp reduction in wholesale inflation), We estimate that inflation will fall to 3% per monthsignificant but far from the 1% that the government predicted, or even the 2% “crawling”. For the rest of the year, the most reasonable thing is still to leave the CEPO in 2024 – although it is not what the market believes – and we expect inflation in 2024 to close at 133%,” they explained from FFMyA

In turn, the economist Juan Manuel Telecheafrom his account on X, said: “Inflation seems to have found its floor at 4%. We will see if in September the reduction of the PAIS tax helps to break through it.“. In this regard he cited Eco Go Retail Price Survey which, for the fourth week of August 2024, indicated that The weekly variation in food was 0.8%, while the RPM projection for August was 4%.