The market is beginning to see the reserves target that the government must meet with greater importance: it has to accumulate US$2 billion in the next 20 days, according to estimates. Will it reach it?
Since Javier Milei took over, the dollar deposits in the private sector increased by more than US$5 billiona trend that continues to accelerate due to the bleach. In August, funds were raised $133 million for the Asset Regularization Regime, According to official figures, for analysts the money laundering has little effect on reserves for the moment and the goal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be compromised.
For the consulting firm 1816, money laundering is growing but contributes little to the net stock of the Central Bank: “Money laundering is gaining momentum. But as Only the fine provides net reserves and CERAs are so attractive. If the whitewashing ended with a important acceptancewould give him some oxygen on the side of the gross reserves (due to the availability of foreign currency from the reserves), but we have to see how far the rope of the “go-go” can be stretched in terms of exchange rates.”
“This would give Greater flexibility for the Central Bank to move towards more negative net reserves if the economic policy objectives demand it, although it is imaginable that There is a level of net reserves below which the market (and/or the local holder of argendólares) would be uncomfortable and “an unstable dynamic could be unleashed,” they concluded.
In July, dollar deposits grew by almost 12%
Money laundering is not enough to reach the goal with the IMF
He BCRA started September on the wrong foot: The bank lost US$328 million in the first week. In the month, there are still payment commitments for US$465 million in capital, US$340 million in interest to various OLS, plus the payment of US$168 million in capital of series 2 of the Bopreal. In addition, the US$530 million corresponding to the ninth review of the IMF agreement that will moderate the loss is pending at the end of the month.
According to the presentation of Vladimir Werning (vice president of the BCRA) at the IAEF in Mendoza, the accumulation of net reserves at least until the end of August It is well below the target agreed with the BCRA for the end of September. The difference is US$1.5 billion. which would force the BCRA to accumulate net reserves of US$71 million per day, an average that was reached last month (and exceeded with an average of US$100 million per day) It was in the month of May.
“For now, the goal of accumulating net reserves of US$8.7 billion since December 10 seems difficult to meet. In the IMF methodology, the BCRA has accumulated net reserves of US$6.7 billion since that date and US$2 billion would need to be added in the next few days,” LCG explained.
Source: Ambito
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