The official forecast is below REM’s calculations. It would be the lowest level since 2009, according to the CPI Congress measurement. Milei would not reach 0% inflation during his current term.
According to the bill that is being submitted to Congress, inflation is estimated to be 18.3% for 2025, which represents a monthly increase of 1.4%.
Scope
Within the framework of the 2025 Budget, the Government projected that for next year the inflation will have a sharp deceleration to less than 20%, compared to just over 100% with which it would close this December. The dollar would follow the same line.
According to the project that reaches Congress, Estimated inflation for 2025 will be 18.3%, the lowest level since 2009 (14.8%), according to the CPI Congress measurement.
The figure projected for next year represents 1.4% monthly. In 2024, it would close at 104%. That is to say, the Government expects a very strong reduction in inflation, although it is still far from the desired 0%. Even This goal would not be achieved during Javier Milei’s term, since for 2026 he expects 11.6% and for 2027 7.4%.
The official forecast is located below REM estimates which anticipate a price index increase of 38.4% by 2025.
It should be noted that the Government expects the dollar to move in line with inflation, with a devaluation of 18.3%.
Dollar for 2025
A key fact:The authorities are considering a progressive adjustment of the official exchange rate. The Government’s calculations assume that the official dollar is located in December of this year at $1,019.90 and an increase of 18.3% by 2025, which would take the official dollar to $1,207 in December 2025.
In this way, the government insists on maintaining its exchange rate policy, ignoring the arguments of those who point out, such as the IMF, that the exchange rate is outdated.
Source: Ambito
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