Whitewashing effect: anticipated rain of silver dollars

Faithful to the Creole style and customs phase one of the laundering was extended (which allows laundering with the minimum fine of 5% or avoiding it via CERA) until end of october decompressing the tension in the areas linked to both financial entities and the LACs.

Some doubts arose among the launderers, especially about the withdrawal of the deposits, to which the specialists They interpreted that those who have regularized cash before September 30 will continue to be able to withdraw their placements on October 1. All this in a context, already anticipated by this newspaper, in which deposits in dollars from the private sector (argendollars) another 1,085 million dollars grew -last Monday last data available- reaching a new record for daily increase since April 2017. They increased by 7,089 million dollars between August 14 and September 23, of which 3,745 million dollars, or more than half, are explained by movements in the last five days with data. As anticipated, whitewashing, described as attractive by specialists, triggered the return of the argendollarswhich has congratulations to the Central Bank (BCRA) thirsty for reserves.

Two exchange traders were doing their math in a legendary bar in the City, now updated to the post-pandemic, after the BCRA ended a streak of seven consecutive rounds of net purchases. -in which it totaled almost 430 million dollars- after selling 30 clubs last Wednesday, and another 20 this Thursday. One of them reported that the gross reserves grew by almost 600 pesos and suspected that it was related to the growth of Argentollar reserves via laundering, but his colleague preferred to know more about the official data to come.

In any case, the “calculator” stood out, The BCRA accumulates a positive balance of more than 200 suits so far this monthso net purchases since the beginning of August were close to $580 million. And he added that gross reserves had grown almost $1.49 billion in the last two days. The other money changer provided the information that what was seen last Wednesday should be linked, in part, to the purchase of more than 190 sticks on Tuesday, which because they are BCRA transactions are settled one day later (in T+1).

Furthermore, since the recent variations in gross reserves would not be explained by differences in the price of gold and the yuan, everyone suspects an increase in bank reserves as a result of new dollar deposits due to money laundering. Before the last espresso one of them brandished the latest report from a renowned consulting firm, today looked askance by libertarians, which highlights that today currency flows continue to dominate the scenein a framework where the international context provided support for the beginning of the process of lowering rates in the United States, but warning that the other side of this scheme are reserves that continue to decline: for this influential consulting firm, the BCRA’s net reserves are negative in more of 5,210 million dollars, It implies being almost 2,000 million below the September accumulation goal included in the agreement with the IMF. That is why it points out that although since the beginning of the money laundering, Argentodollars have grown by more than 4,435 million (485 million daily average in the last week), net reserves have fallen by almost 1,000 million dollars.

They were joined by a well-known and mischievous bonero, protagonist of the tables of the ’90s, who did not miss the alarm that the recent decree that made the conditions for an eventual exchange of the debt in dollars. According to his advisors, although this does not necessarily mean that an exchange will be carried out, the maneuver leads to considering the possibility and evaluating its potential consequences. In this sense, The reading they made is that extending maturities in exchange for raising coupons could alleviate the financial burden without harming bondholders, and with this it would seem that The Government would aim to maintain the stocks in 2025 without the lack of net reserves threatening the sustainability of the debt. And in order not to be a spoilsport, he threw out the latest EcoGo inflation estimate that says that the increase in food prices accelerated in the third week, but the expectation is that Inflation continues to be at 3.4% monthly, below August.

Recently arrived from Wall Street, a low-profile economist-manager, who mixed work with musical leisure with several concerts in Manhattan and Queens, brought a good face about the interest in the Argentine assets that he collected during his visits. In addition, he learned that the people from BlackToro, Gabriel Ruiz and Agustín Pozzoli, were visiting the Family Office in New Orleans as Greg and Doug Stokes Stokes, and Charlie Tiblier, and from the exchange on best practices and growth strategies as an RIA leader, they analyzed opportunities in Latin America where, above all, Greg did not hide his interest in Argentina. While the Argentine visitors, based in Miami, returned impressed by the architecture, culture and food of New Orleans.

In another financial stronghold, the nomination of Pedro CavalloHead Portfolio Manager at Schroders Argentina as Manager of the Month by RankiaPro LATAM. At that meeting, the recent issuance of Pan American Energy for 200 million dollars in two bonds at 3 (rate 4.97%) and 5 years (7%) in the local market was discussed. For some it reflects the coming boom and for others it is nothing more than the economic phenomenon known as “continue the stocks until zero inflation”.

The breakfast held by the people of Mariva where the senior emerging markets credit strategist also had quite an impact Roger Horn presented the outlook for the region’s capital markets to local institutional clients who expressed interest in Latin American corporate bonds, including distressed.

Meanwhile, at the EMTA Forum held in Paris, two Argentine attendees commented that the debate focused on How the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut will affect emerging market assetsthe US elections and China’s economic slowdown. But there was also talk of fiscal “slide” in Brazil, judicial reforms in Mexico, the prospects for South Africa under a unity government, changes in course in Turkey, Egypt and Argentina, and the direction of border credits.

Guillaume Tresca (Generali Investments), Danelee Masia (Deutsche Bank), Alessandra Alecci (Carmignac), Lucie Villa (Moody’s Ratings) and Agnese Melbarde (IVO Capital Partners) were in the game. There were two more issues that attracted the attention of investors in the last few hours: on the one hand, that the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in his first appearance after the rate cut, did not even talk about US monetary policy at the Annual Conference on the Treasury Bond Market, in the New York Fed; and on the other hand, the actions of the famous investor George Soros which has just acquired more than 200 radio stations in 40 locations in the US just weeks before the presidential electionswhich have raised suspicions about the limits that the FCC must respect on foreign capital, in a new round between Republicans and Democrats.