The market analyzes the effect of laundering on financial dollars, whether it is advisable to buy MEP or not and how the exchange rate dynamics will continue going forward.
Financial dollars fell sharply and the market analyzes what is appropriate.
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Although last week they marked increases of $13 in the case of Cash With Settlement (CCL) and of $7.6, in the case of the MEP, the parallel dollars They are heading to close September with strong losses. And the stock market had almost two months of consecutive weekly falls until last Friday and the CCL, almost a month. This is due, above all, to the intervention scheme of the Central Bank (BCRA)which between July and August was close to US$480 million, and the evolution of money laundering, which injects dollars into the financial system. In this context, analysts evaluate how the exchange rate dynamics are coming and what may happen.
The first thing to point out, as analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, the so-called “blue guru”, explains to Ámbito, is that “what money laundering does is put dollars on the streets and betray the dynamics of the market, not are stored, rotated and generate more activity, tax collection and more credit”, which affects the dynamics of parallel exchange rates.
Market analyst Ezequiel Estrada reveals that “money laundering generated a direct effect on the exchange rate and demand for foreign currency.” In fact, foreign currency deposits went from US$19 billion to US$24 billion in just over a month as a result of this measure. “This effect caused the exchange rate to drop 15% from its maximum value in July,” he details.
The carry trade in pesos
Estrada explains that this situation made investments in pesos attractive, which generated the “carry trade” in pesos and, in turn, when there was a calm in the exchange rate, sovereign bonds also showed significant increases.
This dynamic favors the investment climate, but it is also being seen that “people are changing dollars to pesos because it is convenient to launder in local currency and buy cheaper dollars,” describes analyst Elena Alonso.
Extended money laundering: what’s coming for the dollar in October
As the Government decided to extend the different stages of laundering for another month. During the month of October we will possibly continue to observe a calm in the exchange rate, which is why investments in pesos will continue to be attractive. In this case we recommend Lecaps due to their attractive rate.
“Of course, laundering has no impact on the official dollar, but I get the impression that, to the extent that the dollars deposited must remain in the account so as not to pay taxes, they can feed the supply in parallel exchange rates. “, Gustavo Quintana of PR Operadores de Cambio tells Ámbito.
Quintana believes that, now that the deadline has been extended, it is expected that everything will remain the same until the end of October at least, so, as Di Stéfano anticipates, what will be seen is that “the dollar will continue to be highly offered due to money laundering, “which consists of an externalization of saved dollars, and the application of said dollars to the real economy.”
Source: Ambito
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