Consumption continues at the bottom: it fell by nearly 18% in supermarkets in September

September once again marked a drop in consumption in supermarkets: the year-on-year drop in the first three weeks of the month was around 18%. This was confirmed to Scope from the consultancy Scentia. Meanwhile, supermarkets calculate that the accumulated decrease until this month revolves around 12% either 13%.

The data is in line with the consulting firm’s latest survey, which marked a 17.9% drop of sales in August and a cumulative 11.9% in the year.

In this way, consumption appears to be the variable that takes the longest to adapt to the -heterogeneous- recovery of income. This is stated in a report by the consulting firm Analytica in a report titled ““Consumption does not accompany the improvement in income.”

In the document, economist Ricardo Delgado’s consulting firm indicates that registered private salaries accumulated four consecutive months of rise in July, with a 10.8% growth in real terms since April. At the same time, the public sector salary also grew in that month by 2.6%after falling slightly in June. Credit also rose. However, consumption does not react.

So much so that in July sales in supermarkets and self-service They collapsed 16.1%. In the accumulated of the first seven months of the year, there was a decrease in sales of 9.6%.

This level of sales for Analytica is “extremely low”, in fact, the average level for this year It is the lowest of the entire historical series that begins in 2017. In parallel, self-service sales They are the lowest since September 2019.

The retail sales data collected by CAME, which marks a monthly drop of 1.6% in August and 19.5% accumulated, while the EMAE trade rose 3.3% without seasonality, but has had an oscillating behavior since Maystanding 6.2% below November.

However, card loans grew 8.4% in real terms and without seasonality in July and, although they still remain below Novemberrose 19.3% from the February low.

Why this dissociation? For Analytica, it is partly explained by the increase in the weight of services in income, which changed the composition of household expenditures: while the wage index grew a 128.5% compared to November, expenses on electricity, gas and fuel they did it in a 320.2%, which is added to the 252.6% increase in public transportation expensesamong other services.

“This is why the improvement in salaries is not enough to recover last year’s consumption levels and the increase in card credit would be preventing an even greater fall,” the report warns.

Another distinctive element of the current context is seen in the consumption in shopping malls. fell a 1.8% monthly without seasonality in July and are still below November levels, but he has been recovering for 3 consecutive months.

This element for the consultant could explain the other part of the increase in card creditsas well as “an uneven impact of the recession” A characteristic that is also observed in the growth of car and motorcycle registration: 34.1% and 39.2% accumulated monthly, without seasonality, between February and July, respectively.

Meanwhile, supermarkets are betting on discounts and promotionsboth 2×1 and 50% discount on the list price, to support consumption. At the same time, they are betting on summer and the dates of meetings and meetings to reactivate the sale of alcoholic beverages and snacks, which marked 24.3% and 31.2% respectively.