Dollar, bonds and the investment that can shine again: the view of a city guru

Dollar, bonds and the investment that can shine again: the view of a city guru

Market analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, one of the most listened to in the city of Buenos Aires, predicted in an opinion column what the recommended investments for the coming weeks, what could happen with the dollar, and referred to the disarmament of the exchange rate with which the government of Javier Milei is advancing.

The MEP dollar reached $1,134.8 and achieved a gap of 11.4% versus the export dollar, which stands at $1,019, which arises from taking 80% of the wholesale dollar and 20% of the Cash With Settlement (CCL) dollar. This gap is very low and places exporters with a better price in dollars for their products.

The import dollar that arises from the wholesale dollar plus 7.5% of the country tax is located at $1,052.9, while the CCL dollar is at $1,177, which implies a gap of 11.8%. A minimum gap to operate outside the Free Exchange Market.

If an exporter wants to remit money abroad, they must take into account that the exporting dollar is located at $1,019, while the CCL dollar is located at $1,177, so the gap to withdraw money from the country is 15.5%.

If the MEP and CCL dollars continue to fall, at some point their prices will be at the same level as the exporting dollar. When this happens, it will not be necessary to claim for the stocks, since whoever wants to take dollars out of the country will be able to do so by trading pesos with another particular, with a similar price between the export dollar and the CCL dollar.

To the extent that the government continues to achieve a fiscal surplus in the public accounts, a constant purchase of dollars in the market, an increase in reserves and a substantial reduction in country risk, the dollars will converge into a common price, and the discussion of the stocks It will move to another level, since with or without stocks, Argentine dollars will be able to migrate at a price similar to that of exports.

It is important to follow the purchases of dollars by the Central Bank in the Argentine Republic, in the first term of Cristina Kirchner between December 2007 and November 2011 it bought US$ 16,277 million. In his second term between December 2011 and November 2015 (in this period the stocks already began to operate) he bought US$5,395 million. During Mauricio Macri’s mandate (with and without stocks) he sold US$ 18,329 million. During Alberto Fernández’s mandate, (entirely with stocks) he bought US$6,299 million.

When Cristina took office in December 2007, the reserves totaled US$45,566 million, when Alberto Fernández left office they amounted to US$21,209 million.

Under the mandate of Javier Milei, in the period from December 2023 to October 7, 2024, it purchased US$17,347 million, with stocks and a very adverse economic scenario. Reserves are located at US$28,557 million.

In the current administration, more dollars were purchased than in the entire period of the first government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, where the stocks did not exist and soybeans at today’s prices were worth more than US$800 per ton, while today they are trading around of US$380 per ton.

The purchase of dollars that this government made in a short period of time is impressive. In 2023, many Argentines bought dollars expecting a collapse of the economy that did not occur. This led to a very large portfolio change that gave them a great boost. to President Javier Milei.

Parallel to this, the Argentine bonds most emblematic in the market at the time of assuming his mandate, such as the AL30, were worth US$ 37.15, with a return rate of 58.8% annually, today that title after paying two rent and amortization services of US$ 4.0, it is worth US$ 61.85, and its return rate is 18.9% per year.

The sharp drop in country risk is interesting. If this bond shows a return of 12.0% annually in the future, its price would be US$72.0, so we still see the possibility of it continuing to generate value and profitability for its holders. .

Conclusion

. – The stocks can wait, as long as dollar prices in the market allow companies to remit dollars abroad by purchasing the bills freely between individuals. Today the gap between the export dollar and the CCL dollar is barely 15.5% and could be reduced to 0%.

. – The implicit rate of the future dollar is 40% per year. For more details, the future dollar as of September 2025 has an implicit rate of 42.6% per year. The lecap maturing on September 30 has a return rate of 53% per year. The peso rate is higher than the future dollar rate, this ends up disciplining alternative dollars downward.

. – When Javier Milei took office, the MEP dollar was worth $986, and today it is worth $1,135, this implies an increase of 15.1%, while inflation from December to September 30 was 153.0%, this implies that inflation increased 10 times more than the MEP dollar. Those who kept dollars in their portfolios lost purchasing power sharply.

. – The market was strengthened by the parliamentary vetoes, since the president gave a very strong signal that the fiscal surplus is not negotiable. Laundering already exceeds US$ 13,000 million, this has an impact on the dollar deposits of the financial system, which already amount to US$ 32,751 million as of October 7.

. – In the last quarter of the year, the government was able to validate a financial surplus thanks to the income from the moratorium and improvement in economic activity, a drop to 0 in the country tax, a drop in country risk, convergence of the rate in pesos adjusted for inflation with the rate in dollars, and that the alternative dollars are quoted at levels similar to the wholesale dollar. In this context, Argentine bonds continue to be a good investment option, stocks appear as the stars of this summer.

Source: Ambito

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