He dollar in Uruguay broke the 42 peso barrier on Friday, something that had not happened since the extraordinary events of September in the local market due to the uncertainty generated by the social security plebiscitefinally rejected at the polls.
The US currency reached a weekly increase of 1.32%, while so far in November the increase is 1.19%. In this way, the dollar is on track to close a year with a significant appreciation, of around 8.01% compared to the end of 2023, even above what the market expects. market.
Three reasons are behind the bullish rally, the main one being the contagion effect of the behavior of the US currency globally, but not the only one.
Trump 2.0
The first signs of how the elected president will manage the United States economy donald trump have strengthened the dollar globally, in light of their tariff promises which, according to experts, will trigger inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its rate relaxation cycle.
In fact, the Fed’s long rates remain high even when the US central bank cut rates by 25 points last week, meeting forecasts despite the Republican’s electoral victory.
The depreciation of the real
He dollar in Brazil Last week it exceeded 5.7 reais, leading the Brazilian currency, the reference for Uruguay, to a depreciation of 18%. “TO Uruguay everything that happens in Brazil affects him,” reflected the financial advisor of Balanz, Alan Babic.
At the interbank level, the Brazilian real weakened by 7.19% against the Uruguayan peso after falling from 8.41 pesos per real at the end of 2023, to 7.805 pesos per real last Friday. This year, the real hit its bottom on August 1 when it was sold at 7,218 pesos, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
Higher volatility
In the short term, the dollar faces a scenario of greater volatility, pressured by the uncertainty generated by the extent to which Trump will implement the aggressive economic policies he promised.
“The policies announced by Trump may once again raise concerns about future inflation in the United States and that may add volatility to the dollar,” he said. Diego Rodriguezmanaging partner of Gastón Bengochea & Cía. Stock Broker.
Source: Ambito
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