There are analysts who predict that the BCRA could lower the reference rate to adapt to the disinflation process.
While parallel dollars –MEP, CCL and blue- are heading to close the month with heavy losses, the measurements of the inflation place November at a level similar to that of Octoberbelow 3%. Prior to this context The Central Bank ordered a new reduction in its monetary policy rate, placing it at 35% TNA, which implies 2.9% monthly.
So, in November the rate and inflation are close to reaching convergence, while The official dollar continues with the “crawling peg” at a rate of 2%not so far from the other indicators. Financial dollars, for their part, continue to compress the gap that is already below 10% with the wholesaler in the case of CCL; close to 7% for the MEP, and at the level of 12% for the blue.
Looking ahead to what may happen until the end of the year, Andrés Reschini, of F2 Financial Solutions analyzed before Scope What can be expected from the behavior of these variables and if the three will achieve the convergence intended in the original plan of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.
“If they are going to achieve it, I don’t know. The truth is that the Government continues to take measures, such as flexibility for imports aimed at slowing the rise in prices. “At the end of the year we may have inflation and crawl aligned (or very close) but the market continues to see a positive rate.”he expressed.
In turn, Joel Lupieri, of Epyca Consultores, told this medium that “there is a downward expectation in inflation, so it is expected that next month inflation returns to a number similar to the previous one or perhaps a little lower“.
“With respect to the convergence between the dollar, the rate and inflation, the rate today is a little higher than it should be, so It is also expected that there will be a cut in reference rates. And with respect to the dollar, obviously having a somewhat restrictive exchange rate scheme and with the stocks still functioning, “They are going to converge to the official value that the Government had in its head when it started this program”hill.
COUNTRY Tax: another measure aimed at deepening the direction
The Government ordered that Imports will no longer pay the 95% payment on account of the COUNTRY Tax. “This means an effective reduction for imports before the tax expires (December 22 inclusive) accelerating to December the disinflationary impact derived from the downward adjustment in the price of imported goods and services“, they explained from Delphos.
At the same time, they also announced that This measure could imply a lower demand for the MEP/CCL dollar since it would alter the “arbitration” between access to the official exchange market and financial dollars, “resulting in additional downward pressure for the exchange gap in the medium term.” In this regard, they highlighted that the “blend” dollar allows up to 20% of exports to the CCL/MEP to be settled, which kept the supply of dollars in the financial market “high.”
Source: Ambito
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