He global dollar remained practically stable in the early hours of Thursday after data from inflation published were those expected by the operators, while the euro was trading slightly higher before the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day, where a quarter-point rate cut is widely expected.
He dollar index —which measures the performance of the greenback in relation to a basket of six other internationally relevant currencies— remained unchanged at 106.58 units, a day after a reading of US inflation for November consolidated bets to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.
In that sense, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, in line with forecasts, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Department of Labor.
Markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the policy meeting. Fed on Dec. 17 and 18, compared with a probability of about 78% a week ago, the tool showed FedWatch of CME.
The ECB is also almost certain to cut the interest rates when he announces his monetary policy on Thursday and will probably signal that he will continue to ease them, as inflation returns to its target and economic growth remains moderate. “The ECB’s market prices already predict that rates will be reduced to an accommodative level (below 2%) next summer,” the ECB strategist told Reuters. ING Chris Turner. “Overall, we remain bearish on the EUR/USD and we see no reason for the ECB to aggressively oppose current market prices,” he added.
The dollar in Uruguay, unstoppable
Meanwhile, in Uruguay, he dollar rose 0.92% compared to Tuesday and closed at 44,433 pesos in the interbank price of the Central Bank (BCU), chaining its sixth consecutive day on the rise and reaching a new high since January 25, 2022.
The US currency now accumulates a monthly appreciation of 2.95% in December and an annual appreciation of 13.87%, since its price is 5.41 pesos above that registered after the close of the last exchange day of the last year. Since its lowest point this year, on March 26 when it was worth 37,507 pesos, it has already added 18.47%.
The research economist in the Center for Development Studies (CED), Deborah Eilender, He referred to the future behavior of the greenback. “It is expected that this upward trend will continue in the near future,” he observed in dialogue with Scope.
In any case, Eilender clarified that the perspective is “in the long term or throughout 2025”, although he warned that the exchange rate “It could stabilize in the short term or grow more slowly due to the influx of dollars.”
In turn, the supervising economist of CPA Ferrere, Giuliano Cantisani, explained to this medium that “in terms of perspectives, there may be episodes of volatility” and added: “It is expected that the trend of global strengthening of the dollar remain in the coming months, but also that the rate of depreciation will moderate.”
Source: Ambito
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