The financial analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, known as the “blue dollar guru”offered an analysis of the phenomenon of exchange rate delay in Argentina and its impact on the economy. According to the expert, the appreciation of the peso against the dollar responds to the influx of capital and investments, a process that he considers inevitable and structural.
Di Stéfano explained that the strengthening of the peso is directly related to the entry of funds into the country: “Why is the exchange rate appreciating? Because investments are coming. What do we do then, do we throw them out?”
The influx of capital generates an increase in the supply of foreign currency, which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar. For the analyst, this scenario is part of the macroeconomic stabilization process that Javier Milei’s government seeks to implement, although it also presents challenges.
The “meanwhile” and structural challenges
Di Stéfano described the current situation as a “meanwhile”, marked by a fiscal surplus that will be key for economic administration. However, he warned about the lack of structural measures necessary to accompany this process, such as the elimination of distortive taxes (example: the Check Tax) and the reduction of municipal and provincial taxes.
“The Government today should have eliminated the Check Tax, but it cannot. How many duties and taxes did the municipalities lower? How many taxes did the provinces lower?” he stressed.
The gradual strategy for exiting the stocks
In his analysis, Di Stéfano highlighted the importance of a gradual transition to exit the exchange rate trap. According to his perspective, the success of this stage will depend on agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the arrival of fresh funds. However, he anticipates that the process will not begin to accelerate before April 2025.
The government’s plan includes maintaining the fiscal surplus, honoring sovereign bond debt and ensuring an orderly path to currency competition. For Di Stéfano, who spoke with Ahora play, the key for investors will be to maintain liquidity in the coming months: “There is no need to rush, being liquid will be the key, since the market will give us many opportunities in 2025.”
Source: Ambito
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