The economist Carlos Melconianrecognized for his experience in monetary and economic policy, analyzed the challenges facing the government of Javier Milei to eliminate the exchange rate on the dollar in 2025.
According to his statements, although the current administration made progress in 2024 as stabilize the exchange rate and reduce inflationstill faces fundamental problems in its dollar roadmap.
Lack of clarity in exchange rate policy
Melconian expressed that the Government’s strategy to manage the exchange market remains uncertain. According to the economist, although the fiscal surplus is on track, measures related to the dollar and financing lack definition.
“Fiscal policy is orderly, but the dollar area is in a gray area. There is little clarity about how progress will be made in the unification of the exchange market and in the accumulation of reserves,” he stated.
The “combo” that affects the field
Melconian also pointed out that the agro-export sector faces a harmful combo of policies: exchange rate, withholdings and international prices.
“The field is operating with better volume, but the profits are not enough. It’s like selling products without a profit margin,” he said, criticizing the Government’s slowness to offer solutions, particularly in the elimination of withholdings.
During the presidential campaign, Melconian proposed a scheme of exchange equality for exports and inputs and the elimination of obstacles for regional economies. According to the economist, these measures remain crucial to unlock the competitiveness of the sector.
The need for an agreement with the IMF
To lift the exchange rate, the economist stated that the Government faces an urgent need for external financing. He highlighted that a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It is essential to unblock this process.
“We must unblock an agreement with the IMF, which would allow reserves to be accumulated and give stability to the financial system,” he stressed. However, he warned that one cannot depend exclusively on market access to place debt in the short term.
A financial “soap opera” to resolve
Melconian described the situation of the stocks as a “soap opera” that needs to be resolved quickly. For the economist, the elimination of the stocks must be accompanied by clear decisions on how to manage the credit provided by multilateral organizations.
Furthermore, he insisted that the fiscal surplus, although necessary, is not enough to guarantee long-term economic stability.
Outlook for 2025
The economist concluded that, although the Milei government has shown progress in some economic aspects, it still has to resolve fundamental structural issues to achieve the liberalization of the exchange market. This includes defining a clear strategy for reserve management, financing and incentive policies for the export sector.
For Melconian, who spoke with Radio Rivadavia, the success of these reforms will determine whether Argentina can overcome current limitations and achieve a free and sustainable exchange market.
Source: Ambito
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