After the inflation figure of 2.7% in December, the Central Bank (BCRA) announced that, starting in February, it will reduce the pace of monthly devaluation of the official dollar and It will go from 2% to 1%. The decision had already been anticipated by Javier Milei, who indicated that he would adopt this measure if the price increase in the last month of 2024 was comparable to that registered in November. In this context, economists they already sharpen the pencil to calculate what It can happen in the month of January.
While most consulting firms project that the 2025 consumer price index (CPI) will be between 20% and 25%, in line with the Government’s expectations, for the month of January it is expected that the a floor of 2.5%. This figure is estimated without yet considering the impact of the recent reduction in crawling peg, whose effect will be reflected in the coming months.
Analyst expectations for January
According to C&T Consultores, “the data from the price survey for the first half of January show a moderation of the rate of increase, so inflation for the month would be less than 2.5%.”
According to LCG, January presents lower increases in Regulated but higher in seasonal. Assuming a deceleration of the core to previous levels (2.7%), they project inflation around 2.5% for the entire month, “a figure that we take as a floor.” From the LCG analysis, crawl reduction can be a tool for coordinating price expectations. However, he warns that it could lose effectiveness if uncertainty about the dollar continues.
On the other hand, analysts Adcap Financial Group They corrected the January inflation forecast to 2.4% (from 2.3%) while stating that “price dispersion remains high” and that puts pressure on the core. “This estimate is below the median reported in the latest survey of professional economists carried out by the Central Bank. In addition, we maintain our 2025 projection at 25%.”
For their part, SBS reported that the data from high frequency of January show that core inflation continues to be affected by the regulated. “We remember that in January there were some increases in public services such as water, electricity and gas, while there were increases in fuel and some prepaid bills.” They also contribute that the reduction of PAIS Tax rate, could help the slowdown, with the effect that it could continue to spread in February.
Inflation, according to the Market Expectations Survey
In it last survey of the year, Those who participated in the REM estimated monthly inflation of 2.7% for December (an expectation that was finally met). For its part, for the month of Januarythe median is 2.5% and in February 2.3% (However, the latter will still have to see the impact of the drop in the crawling peg).
Source: Ambito
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