The Ministry of Economy proposes to decompress the debt maturity schedule in pesos of the hottest time of the year to try to reduce the risks of exchange rate shocks during the electoral process. While Luis Caputo returned from Washington to receive in Buenos Aires a mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with which he negotiates new external debt, his team launched the call for a exchange voluntary of eleven securities in local currency that mature between May and November 2025, with the purpose of kicking off a good part of those payments by 2026.
The operation will take place this Friday and it will be of an important magnitude. Instruments eligible to participate in the conversion They bring together maturities of around $23 billionaccording to private calculations. Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) calculated that they represent 20.5% of the commitments in local currency scheduled for all of 2025. As an incentive for holders to enter the exchange, the Ministry of Finance will recognize a higher price than what was paid for those instruments in the last wheels in the secondary market. In the city, they see the “prize” as attractive and predict a high level of adhesion.
What will the debt exchange in pesos be like?
Holders of 11 titles that expire between May and November of this year will be able to participate in the exchangemostly at a fixed rate. These are Lecap S16Y5 (which involves an amount of $3.3 billion), S30Y5 ($1.6 billion), S18J5 ($2.1 billion), S30J5 ($1.2 billion), S31L5 ($2.4 billion), S29G5 ($1.4 billion), S12S5 ($1.1 billion), and S30S5 ($1.3 billion); Boncap T17O5 ($1.8 million); and the Boncer TZX25 ($3.9 billion) and TX25 ($3.2 billion), both indexed to inflation.
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In exchange, holders who agree to participate in the exchange will receive a basket made up in equal parts of four dual-rate bonds (the highest among those that capitalize the fixed rate included in the operation and the TAMAR variable ratepublished by the Central Bank) that will expire on March 16, 2026, June 30, 2026, September 15, 2026 and December 15, 2026. Finance indicated that, at the prices stipulated for the operation, the new bonds will pay an average annual effective internal interest rate of return (TIREA) of 29.5%.
The “prize” and the expectations of membership
In general, in the city they consider that Caputo will pay a “prize” attractive to those who enter the exchange as a way to try to clear a period of the year that will be crossed by the electoral climate. The reading is that The Government seeks to reduce the amount of maturities that, in the event of a “change of mood in the market” that implies difficulties in refinancing commitments, could put pressure on the dollar in the middle of the campaign.even more so if a greater flexibility of the stocks had been achieved.
That is why a good part of the operators and analysts believe that the participation of the holders in the operation will be quite broad. As a floor, PPI calculated that a 11.7% of the eligible debt is in the hands of public sector organizations and it was estimated that accession could be higher.
“A priori, the exchange and the new instruments seem interesting. They represent an attractive alternative to stretch ‘duration’ in the fixed rate curve with an even slightly more attractive yield (between 10 and 15 basis points more than the monthly effective rate, TEM). In turn, the investor obtains a ‘hedge’ against a possible rate increase by the BCRA (due to an exit from the stocks?) or a less aggressive rate reduction than expected by the market. In other words, The investor captures a more attractive fixed rate (compared to Boncap) through this operation and ‘wins’ the optionality of the variable flow (TAMAR) at no cost. Thus, we would not be surprised if the acceptance rate is quite high,” the firm considered in a report for its clients.
In dialogue with Scope, Second Derdoyresearch analyst at Inviuagreed that there may be enough participation: “The offer is attractive for holders of eligible securities, especially for those with sufficient risk tolerance to extend the duration. Taking the rates at the close of Monday as a reference, the exchange premium is approximately 10 basis pointswhich allows obtaining a call at a dual rate without having to pay an additional premium for this benefit. This could also be attractive for those who have liabilities at the TAMAR rate and who already have exposure to Treasury securities, as is the case with banks.”
How to calculate returns
The TAMAR is a variable rate that began to be published by the BCRA last December. It represents the average performance of the wholesale fixed terms for placements exceeding $1,000 million. Currently, the TAMAR is close to 200 basis points above the BADLAR (which includes fixed terms over $1 million) and which was the most traditional variable rate.
A report of Adcap Grupo Financiero calculated that the TEM offered for the new dual bonds range between 2.14% and 2.25%. And he compared those returns with what the longest Boncap had this Tuesday (June 2026) in the secondary market: 2.08%. For this reason, he considered that the conversion “presents an attractive opportunity for investors seeking to extend the duration.” “Given the constant demand for fixed rate instruments, “We anticipate strong interest in the duals basket,” the report added..
This occurs, according to Adcap analysts, in a context in which the latest tenders showed that there is little investor interest in extending duration through indexed bonds (Boncer).
Furthermore, the report signed by Federico Filippini, Javier Casabal and Valentín Gómez predicted that the exchange has a 2.2% upside potentialparticularly for those who enter with fixed-rate titles. “This increase has two key components: first, the 0.5% is due to the Treasury validating higher prices than the current yield curve implies. Second, we anticipate additional gains averaging approximately 1.6% over the duration extension,” he projected.
The operation will open at 10 a.m. and end at 3 p.m. on Friday, January 24. The settlement of the offers received and awarded will take place on Wednesday, January 29 (T+3). Next week, meanwhile, the second tender of January will be held in which the Government will face maturities of around $12 billion.
Source: Ambito

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