Moody´s said the improvement reflects “The energetic change of government policy, which has allowed a fiscal adjustment that helps correct economic imbalances. “
The government temporarily fell with agricultural exports withholdings, which could benefit the arrival of dollars to the market for days that Central Bank (BCRA) apply a decrease in the crawling PEG. In order to clear debt maturities, the treasure He exchanged bonds in local currency for new instruments for a total of 14 billion pesosequivalent to 13,378 million dollars. The operation had an acceptance of 64%.
“The government made a bond exchange in pesos with the aim of extending maturities from 2025 to more than a year seen, for which it offered a dual bond basket in pesos, that is, they pay the best of the two worlds (fixed rate or variable in pesos). It is clear that the ‘carry (trade)’ is still alive, Especially at this time of the year, “said Andrés Vernengo, from Markets Argentina.
“Beyond the bombastic support ads, the delicate local situation and the challenging external context recommend monitoring the situation closely,” said Vatnet Financial Research. “The free contributions of the dollar showed a weekly drop of -1% on average for spot contributions and a weekly -0.1% stability for the futures market. However, it is estimated that a strong official intervention would have occurred in those those markets, which would indicate a transition situation until a more stable external balance is achieved“He explained.
“In the light of advertisements around export taxes, we believe that the exchange market environment improved significantly, since the highest expected accumulation of reserves It should favor compression of the dollar gap “Federico Fillipini of Adcap Grupo Financiero said.
The market awaits greater compression in the country risk
“The new presidential management implemented significant structural changes and more reforms that the economy could take to a sustained growth path, accompanied by an increase in local market capitalization,,” said Delphos Investment.
“The correlation between economic growth and stock performance is explained by business foundations: in general, an expanding economy improves the results of most companies,” he said. “Argentina is now 184 average country risk points in Latin America already 324 and 326 points in Mexico and Colombia, respectively. The great compression of the country risk in the Argentine case of recent months occurred in a context in which The rest of the countries in the region maintained or increased their country risk levels“Balanz said in a report.
“The 2024 ended with solid fiscal performance, and constituted the pillar that offered the greatest economic program. 2025 The result is expected to be overrav.although the economic team will face greater challenges and, likewise, it will be necessary to see if it advances with structural reforms, such as in the pension or tax system, “said Invecq Consulting.
Source: Ambito
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