The signals of IMP -But also of the President Javier Milei– They are overwhelming. While l A Volatility of the Action and Bonds Market It seems to twist the positive tendency of the past for Argentine assets, the Government goes out to the crossing of the looks to say that “nothing has happened here.”
He CCL financial dollar It comes from touching its highest level for recent weeks in the $ 1200 area and the gap between the officer and the financial grows. There are more: as noted from this column a few days ago, the “Silenzio Stampa” of the IMF mission when leaving the country and the indifferent statement yesterday of the organism spokeswoman Julie Kozak realizes a negotiation with friction.
In addition to an endorsement of Congress and a devaluation, What the IMF asks for is that the exchange rate be unified. This is because the most fragile side of the economic program is, in the opinion of the agency, the exchange policy. Not for nothing President Javier Milei and Minister Luis Caputo every time they can reinforce the “successes” of fiscal and monetary policy, but they say nothing – once Silenzio Stampa – of the lucky luck.
Lifting the stock does not serve the Government in 2025
It is clearly the lack of accumulation of net reserves is the failure of origin of Javier Milei’s economic program. What type of maneuver can the government use to lift the exchange rate before January 1, 2026, as the president said this week?
Former Minister Domingo Cavallo warned. He said that we must generate surplus of the balance of payments, either by means of the current account or the capital account above the current account deficit. In Creole, he asked for something that can perfectly disturb the world “Carry Trade”, that is, Eliminate the offer that comes through the dollar Blend. The other is what the government begins to do with difficulty, lower taxes on exports. And there is something else: Cavallo recommends that tourism and importation of non -essential goods are settled to the dollar counted with liquidation, that is, a kind of exchange unfolding.
The “Carry Trade Show” and the Cheap Dolla
These days it was clear that the Government goes for the second part of the Carry Trade Show (CTS). And that expects, in this way, to add reservations, applying the same policies for its monetary and rates policy that took place in 2024. That is why The 1% devaluation speed with the crawiling peand warned the entire market that he does not plan to leave the stocks in 2025 or unify, even if the IMF can lend some dollars. “I do not make waves, calm,” they seem to calmly in the government. However, a deficit in the current exchange account can begin to play against that intention.
The recipe of having a rate in pesos that always goes above the crawling pe It implies that the Government wants companies to be indebted in dollars (not in pesos) to add dollar offer in the Mulc. Thus you can buy the dollars that feed the reserves, although these always end up losing level because it fails to supply the demand.
Another part is offered through the Blend dollar and this makes the exchange gap is kept trimmed so that those who bet at the “see” rate that everything is fine and can continue to make Carry Trade. In addition, a low gap stimulates price drop in pesos, controlled inflation. The “clock” of the Central Bank also does something else: when buying dollars in the Mulc, the entity that Santiago Bausili leads improves the commercial exchange result, because exporters are tempted to liquidate.
DOLLAR DOLLAR MARKETS BONOS Actions ADRS
The IMF came and left: letters not to cry
In the government they are hoped with the dollars of the IMF. They think that a loan like the one they are requesting can compensate for the projected current account of about US $ 13,000. The current account deficit is a negative balance of the balance of payments in a country, which occurs when imports exceed exports.
It is a broader measure than the commercial deficit, since it includes other transactions such as: international investments, remittances, etc. Although this may take place, the IMF loan is still desired. Meanwhile, The Government continues with the CTSa substitute for the dollars that are needed as a result of an exchange rate that does not adapt to the reality of the country.
Ferreres and a theoretical dollar of $ 1600
In the last hours, and as Domingo Cavallo did this week, which alerted by a potential agreement with the IMF was the economist Orlando Ferreres. He said that there is the possibility of an IMF loan for between US $ 5,000 YU $ s10,000 million Before May. However, he warned that these funds “will not be enough to lift the exchange rate”, since “a capital entry and an increase in market confidence are needed.” But perhaps what generated more attention is its analysis of exchange pressures. Ferreres said The “theoretical” parity of equilibrium is at $ 1,617 per dollarwhich contrasts with an official dollar at $ 1,075. “The IMF loan is a palliative, but sustained growth will require confidence and structural reforms,” he said.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
