Only 24 hours had gone from a collapse of great proportions in the S&P Merval as a direct reaction to the scandal around the Crypto $ Libra, which involves President Javier Milei. With the resumption of the operation in the USA (Monday was a holiday), in which the ADRs showed a mostly the trend, local actions gave a sudden change this Tuesday and The leading BYMA panel bounced 6.1% (after the drop of 5.6% on Monday).
The question that the market was asked on Monday was whether international investors would maintain the feeling “Bearish” that the premises showed during the previous day. The answer was, a priori, negative, at least among the ASS: after a bearish start in the “premarket”, the Argentine roles reversed the dynamics and closed with slight upward trend: the winning podium composed of South gas transporter (+2.7%), Telecom (+1.7%) and Galicia Financial Group (+1.4%).
In the Buenos Aires bag, On the other hand, the strong advances of the day were led by the actions of Galicia, gas transporter of the South and Telecom, which flew 9.2%. On Monday, local actions had fallen up to 8.1% (black hill).
They believe in the market that the good performance of Wall Street (the S&P500 marked a new record), but, above all, The expectation of advances in the agreement with the IMF played a key role in the recomposition of prices. With the visit of President Javier Milei to the United States during this week, rumors circulated on the City imminent ads within the framework of negotiation with the IMF, which could add back to local financial assets.
Besides, Reports of great USA banks (El Bofa and Goldman Sachs) were known, minimizing the $ Libra effect and maintaining the commitment to Argentina, which changed humor after a lazy start of the market.
In the fixed income segment, while the sovereign bonds in dollars recorded 2% falls on average on Wall Street, although more moderate than Mondays in the local square. Consequently, Country risk increased 3.1% to 696 basic points According to JP Morgan. “The dollar debt had a normal wheel with falls that were quite in line with what we saw in other credits in the region such as Brazil, Chile, Mexico or Peru; as always adjusting for the fact that Argentina has greater volatility,” analyzed an operator consulted by Scope.
The local and global market on Tuesday had a quite aligned reaction for Argentine assets with the expected for an event that, for many in the City, can Not having very relevant implicationsin the sense that probably “Do not imply an important change of base scenario “, They expressed at the tables.
Pedro Siaba Serrate, Head of Research & Strategy of PPI, pointed to Scope that the $ pound scandal, “It will not have great long -term repercussions”according to what the operators validate.
“The probability of a political trial is very low and there are not great political consequences, beyond that we will have to wait for image surveys and see what happens with pending votes in the Senate. The latest macro data, as a fiscal result And the January CPI, with very good readings they hold this hypothesis “, explained to This medium.
For its part, Delphos Investment He pointed out that local financial assets, which had already “landed on planet Earth,” are now mainly stimulated by “global news, but also for specific local issues.” He reiterated that these factors have to do with two great “drivers”, The lifting of the stocks and the legislative elections 2025, “the broker slipped.
Regarding the economic, “we must say that the messages that Minister Caputo and President Milei were good on Monday. However, what happened can fully impact on that last issue, the electoral. The ruling seemed to have the paved road of face to October 2025. The latest poliarchy survey, closed the last Friday, It showed a national vote intention to 36% lla, compared to 16% of Kirchnerism and 9% of the PRO. In turn, this political consultant emphasizes that by first time (without agreement with the PRO) appeared above Kirchnerism in the province of Buenos Aires, Delphos said.
Does this crypto scandal care and impact on people? That is the main question to solve, because ultimately the self -generated “noise” that moves to the markets has to do with the potential deterioration in the image of the president. However, the “political and media ´Show´ of the entire political arch is part of the game,” Delphos considered. “Surely cause a lot of noise, but the doubt is whether it will have any tangible impact on the positive image of the government.”
Throughout history, Delphos recalled that, in many political episodes in the world, The economy ended up sending. “From Dilma in Brazil (greater economic depression of its modern history) to Clinton in the US (tremendous economic expansion), we have seen that the political outcome has been conditioned by economic circumstances. At this point, at this point, The Government has a great asset, because at the end of the day “it is the economy, stupid”, as Bill Clinton taught us “he concluded.
The Twin surpluses, in fiscal and commercial (although it was committed in January), In addition to one Low of inflation, and an exchange gap – now – under control, are the main economic support of the Government since the assumption in December 2023.
Source: Ambito
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