Investments: What the market expects, according to a City Guru

He financial market Local crosses moments of uncertainty, with the volatility of assets and exchange stability, which leads investors to rethink their strategies.

In this context, analyst Salvador Di Stefano, known as the “Blue Guru”gave his vision about the best options to protect the capital and ruled out certain assets in the short term.

Without agreement with the IMF, the market will continue on a side route, trying to find a solid floor waiting for a reservations.

The week began with a considerable decline in the shares, and this was a purchase signal. Crises are always synonymous with the opportunity, the decline on Monday, plus the bearish opening on Tuesday marked purchase signal. The scandal around $ Libra would not end in a political trial, investigative commission, and even less in demands on the Argentine State, the political temperature, but nothing that precipitates changes in power. The economic guidelines of the State are maintained, fiscal surplus is achieved, the amount of pesos in the economy is still low in terms of GDP, and there is a grand prize for staying in pesos. Three conditions that keep at the value of the dollar.

The market had fuel to get out of the leave on Monday, but it needs more economic narrative to start a path of bonds and actions.

The country risk is located in the 720 points, the sovereign bonds in dollars such as the AL30 yields 13.3% per year, while the al35 yields 12.0% per year. In order for these bonds to show a strong improvement, they need to raise reservations, leave the stocks and the country has a substantial improvement in their credit rating. The market already discounts that the Government has and will have a fiscal surplus, but it needs to terminate the exchange restrictions for a substantial low country risk. In 2017, the country risk was located at 350 points, Mauricio Macri’s government had fiscal deficit, but had lifted the stocks.

The Al35 bonus is worth $ 65, if Argentina achieves an agreement with the IMF, disburse $ 11,000 million, reaches US $ 40,000 million of reserves and lifts the stocks, this bonus could quote at US $ S 77, which would imply a return rate of 9.0% per year, and those who buy it today at US $ 65 would report a gain of 18.5% in dollars.

It is extremely attractive to bet on public titles in dollars, if the film ends with a happy ending, however, that scenario is possible, but does not look likely in the short term.

The president has said that the CEPO rises on December 31 of the year 2025, however, he said that with external help and rises of the stock in dollars of the reserves the departure of the stock could be advanced. It does not seem that the agreement with the IMF is by the end of February, there are advanced negotiations, but the Minister of Economy speaks of a happy ending for the first four -month period of the year 2025.

If we assume that the agreement would be for the month of April, there is time to take position in sovereign bonds in dollars, and much longer to take position in shares.

The Argentine stock market is dominated by banking and energy actions. Banks grow to the pace of the country’s low risk, the drop in contributions makes banking value reasonable again, but we do not see the driver at an immediate market rise. With regard to energy companies, we have the doubt about the US oil policy. If Alaska and their maritime platforms are going to drill, the price of the dollar should give in, and this is not good for our companies. The oil is at US $ 71.85, it has an important support in the US $ 65 area, if it drills it, this will affect local oil companies.

LECAPS and BANCAPS remain very attractive, with quotes that leave return rates greater than 30% per year, they look positive against inflation that is projected in 20.3% annual according to the top 10 of consultants with greater success of the expectation of expectation BCRA market. This gives us a positive rate against inflation of 8.1% annual. These titles have better profitability than bonds that adjust for inflation. Arbitration alert.

Conclusion

. – Market without large incentives for greater purchases. The agreement with the IMF would come for the month of April, the reserves remain below US $ 29,000 million. The price of oil could descend and affect Argentine companies.

. – The good news for the market, is that banks that achieve exterior lines of credit or place obligations negotiable in dollars, may grant dollars to companies that are not in the export chain. This is going to make credit in dollars more, but whoever is financed through these lines will have more term and rates less than those of pesos to plan investment in your company. This could enhance the purchase of reservations by the Central Bank.

. – The deposits in dollars ended 2024 at $ 33,886 million, and as of February 17 they are $ 33,119 million, for the same dates the dollar deposits in the private sector went from US $ 31,491 million to US $ S 30,551 million. The reservations for equal dates went from US $ 29,612 million to US $ 28,747 million. They are not numbers to worry, but if they do not go up, an improvement of the bonds and actions is far. The price of the dollar will be contained by the lack of fuel, there are no pesos.