Donald Trump keeps the world in suspense with the war of tariffs: what is the expectation with bonds and actions

However, the situation seems to have calmed down. Trump spoke to Congress and did not mention concrete measures against any of the pointed countries. On the contrary, it was known that trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico are still open after the application of rates. The date to follow closely will be on April 2 in which you can know whether or not the application of reciprocal tariffs will be completed.

According to Delphos Investment in the day summary, the Futures of the US Stock Exchange indicate a positive start of the day. Trump’s measures added volatility to the Argentine market that came from profits by the ADRs after Javier Milei’s speech before the Legislative Assembly, ratifying the road map. Despite the increases that the sovereign bonds maintained on Monday, The country risk is still above 700BP, in 740. This is linked to the sharp fall in the yields of the US Treasury bonds, in a context of “Risk off”, according to Delphos.

In principle, these good indications of the US indices cushion the doubts that the main operators had faced on Tuesday, which would indicate that the casualties facing the American market and that affect the Argentine ADRs, could be “transitory” and not the beginning of a bearish signal.

The doubts in the market: reservations and dollar

In the last hours, Domingo Cavallo published a column in which he recommended a devaluation to improve the accumulation of reserves. Cavallo’s hypothesis is simple. He says that surely the economic team considers that it is important to keep the gap between the official exchange rate and the CCL for Avoid expectations of a devaluation jump At some point of the future. That is why the liquidation of the dollar Blend. However, he argues that reading is different.

“We must consider the possibility that the expectation of evolution of the official exchange rate and The probability of a future devaluation jump, depend much more on the evolution of net external reserves than artificially controlled gap by the Central Bank ”. From this perspective, “the best way to avoid a destabilizing devaluation jump in the future is to find a way to increase net reserves without devaluing the jumps.”

Cavallo analyzes the impact of the new exchange policy, highlighting that the gap between the CCL exchange rate and the officer will probably increase due to the 20% exit of export income and the increase in demand for non -essential imports. It proposes to allow capitals for direct foreign investments to enter through the CCL market or its substitute, which could contribute to reduce the gap without affecting the reserves of the Central Bank.

Before the question of whether stability can be maintained Even the elections, the economist replies that yes, arguing that, although the exchange gap could force the rhythm of the “crawl”, the true anchor of the economy is the tax adjustment, which allows monetary control, not the exchange rate. As evidence, he points out that the reduction of the “crawl” rate to 1% monthly in February did not have a significant impact on inflation.

In this context and the doubts of the market regarding the accumulation of reserves, The Government accelerates negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the market already expects concrete developments in April. This, in principle, will not only help give air to the government regarding reserves, but also that it will be a blunt mattress, added to the dollars that will enter the thick harvest.

The panorama of Argentine actions and bonds

“Bond prices were affected (in the previous days) and the country risk approached the 800 basic points (…) The lack of definitions with the IMF begins to generate some pressures on the bond curve. While the market was waiting for an agreement for the first quarter of this year, the absence of concrete advances has generated an increase in uncertainty, “they said from Balanz.

“Bonds and shares, (February) without fuel. A combination of doubts about the local exchange frame and sales has affected prices,” Max Capital synthesized.

“With the fact that indications of a possible agreement with the IMF appear, at the beginning of this week buyers on shares and bonds (Argentines) on Wall Street were renewed, which will impact immediately over (the square of) Buenos Aires, Although the new American tariffs will serve as a brake“said a financial agent of foreign banking.

“As in many markets, there is a change in attitude with greater risk aversion and significant falls in bonds and actions for the first two -month period of the year,” said Vatnet Financial Research consultant.