Government’s messages on the imminence of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund With new indebtedness to strengthen reservations, launched To try to counteract doubts about the future of the exchange schemefor the moment they seem to have had the opposite effect on devaluation expectations. In the two wheels that have elapsed this week, the agents went out to cover themselves and The quotes of the future dollar flew.
In fact, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowent to the crossing of those expectations During a speech he provided this Thursday in Mendoza. He acknowledged that there are expensive prices in dollars, but said the solution is not to devalue. Instead, he assured that, once the agreement is with the IMF and the stocks are lifted, “Nothing will happen with the exchange rate” Because “there are no pesos.”
The City seems not to trust that idea. On the one hand, because The background itself considers that the exchange rate is appreciated and asks you to accelerate the rhythm of devaluation. On the other, because The government fails to accumulate reservations And his bet is to cling to the life of the organism based in Washington. In addition, because Javier Milei wants to sustain his main political credential, the slowdown in inflation, at least to the legislative elections through the exchange anchor policy; but The post -election period opens doubts.
Future dollar: strong increases this week
This was evidenced by the movements of the contracts of Futures of the dollar So far this short week. There were considerable rises in all sections, although they were much more lifted in the positions of October onwards.
For example, this Wednesdaycontracts at the end of March, April and May increased between 1.8% and 1.9%, while the rest of the trepc 1.8% to 3.1%.
On Thursday, far from reversing, the dollar futures rose another step. The positions from here to September advanced up to 0.9%. As of October, the increases were between 0.9% and 1.9%.
“It is evident that this market reaction is due to the recent comments of Milei on a possible agreement with the IMF. Although rumors circulate that the new agreement would not include modifications to the exchange regime (in the short term, at least), Agents preferred to increase coverage in the futures market “considered personal investments (PPI) In a report for your customers.
The future dollar moves away from the “crawling peg” at 1%
This way, The market devaluation expectations move away from the rhythm promised by the government through its “tab” Exchange that, since February, imposes a “Crawling Peg” of 1% monthly.
For April, for April, Thursday’s closure contributions show an implicit expectation of increasing the official exchange rate of 2%. The same percentage runs for the position to May. For June, 1.9%; for July, 2%; for August, 1.7%; For September, 2.1%.
The forecast contemplated in futures begins to accelerate even more in October, with a monthly rate of 2.6%. The position to November predicts 2.8%; December, 3.3%. In fact, The contract at the end of the year closed to $ 1,328far from what was promised by the Government and somewhat closer to the $ 1,400 that had predicted the Bank of America in a recent report.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
