In the government they ensure that negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already entered the definition stage. The key moment for the start of the new program It would be April, As anticipated by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.
As the official said last Thursday in Mendoza in a business forum, The organism will not demand that you devalue the currency, which is logical, since in reality in this kind of agreements, government measures are not negotiated, but economic policy goals.
Today the objective is to make the Central Bank return to add dollars for your reservations and for this it will be necessary to leave the stocks. There will not be a “discreet jump” market operators consulted by Scope.
There is talk about returning to a scheme that Argentina has already applied in the past: exchange bands. This implies setting a maximum and a minimum price for the dollar. There is a non -intervention zone. If the dollar exceeds the roof, the Central Bank goes to sell. If you pierce the floor go buy.
A referent of the capital market indicated that If bands will be applied today with the current macro conditions, it is most likely that I immediately go to the roof and overcome it. “If you put a $ 1,100 band and $ 1,300 of ceiling, you will not sell at $ 1,100,” they say operators.
The bands are not new. The last in apply them was Guido Sandleris, when he had to replace Luis Caputo in the Central Bank, The current Minister of Economy, which in turn had replaced the current deregulation minister, Federico Sturzeneger.
The bands of Sandleris were set as of September 2018, with a $ 39 floor and a $ 49 roof. A monetary program for the monetary base was established, and a “crawling” for the monthly 3% band. He managed to contain inflation and the price of the dollar until June 2019. Then the electoral process liquefied the credibility of the Government of Mauricio Macri.
Market distrust for exchange bands
For the market, still There are many data to know To know if the scheme will work. “It’s just a title, details are missing,” They affirm. Actually, the mood that is noticed at first sight is a certain distrust. It is nothing new. Like other things that have been tested in Argentina in the past that have not worked, the bands are seen with suspicion. It all depends on the “small print” on the program that Caputo has encased.
It must be determined whether when they leave the stocks they will be able to send utilities abroad, if restrictions on the capital account will persist, If you will be able to buy all the dollars you want.
Also in the market it is warned about the width of the band. If the non -intervention zone is very limited, 3% according to a proposal that would have been circulating, it would be in something similar to what is already happeningbut with another name.
Martín Kalos, from the consultant Epyca states that a 3% band “is little for Argentina and much for the world.” “What needs to be determined how much the center of the band goes up. If it moves to 3% it is like not leaving much of 2% inflation that is today and 1.5% expected for the coming months ”Kalos explained.
The economist considered that it would be very different that the Central Bank is determining the center of the band to month to month to which there is a “kind of predetermined devaluation tab”. Assuming that the BCRA set the band of the following month every month, that would indicate that the margin of movement of the dollar would be of more or less 1.5% respect of the center, but with a value of the dollar that could be better accommodated to each particular situation.
“It is a way to seek balance between the complete administration of the exchange rate that the National Government exercises from Mauricio Macri, passing by Alberto Fernández and what is going from the Government of Javier Milei And what the IMF would like, which is a cleaner flotation. In the middle it is this “Said Kalos who considered it necessary for the government to announce the details of the program.
Source: Ambito
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