Debt: Luis Caputo announces new tender titles in pesos in a context of pressure on rates

He Ministry of Economy The conditions for the First Debt Bidding in March pesosthat will be held this Wednesday. The auction will be an important thermometer regarding the march of the financial and monetary program. Is that the weakness shown by the title curve in local currency during the last weeks increased the Pressures on interest rates in the secondary market. How much will you have to pay Luis Caputo To renew maturities?

The call to tender will be published this afternoon, once you have closed the stock wheel. There, the Secretariat of Finance will announce the instrument menu that investors will offer on Wednesday.

This time, the dependence that leads Pablo Quirno will face Mistrifications for $ 4.6 billioncorresponding to the LECAP S14M5, which expires this Friday.

Debt, tender and pressure on rates

As he said Scopethe tender comes a Pressure moment on interest rates in pesos. Last week, Treasury titles in local currency operated in lowas had happened on the previous wheels. On Thursday, in fact, there was an important Sel-Off of the Boncap (fixed rate bonds that are part of the long section of the curve). The exception was Friday: there was a rebound that allowed to cushion the weekly red.

Thus, according to calculations of the SBS groupthe week closed with a slight 0.2% rebound in the short section, a 0.2% decrease in the middle section and a Strong 1.8% drop in the long sectioncompared to the previous Friday. The setbacks are added to the weak performance of the previous weeks and promotes interest rates in the secondary market.

“The fixed rate titles continued to correct with accumulated falls in the long stretch around 2% and already operate with rates above 2.4% TEM (effective monthly rate). The short titles were also lazy, located in the topic of 2.65%, ”said IEB in a report sent to your customers.

IEB highlighted the considerable rebound of yields with respect to two and three weeks ago. In the short section, most LECAP operated on Friday with TEMs of between 2.6% and 2.7%; February 21 were below 2.4% and February 14 below 2.3%. In the long section there are also increases in the rates of about two tenths.

The big question is how much will be willing to validate the treasure in that framework.

Pressure factors on financing cost

Analysts consider that there is a set of factors that generate the bouncing of interest rates and that, therefore, they press on the cost of treasure financing.

The Consultant 1816 mentioned three:

• The data of high frequency inflation that “anticipate a variation of the February CPI not very different from January, which could postpone the next cutting of the central fees.”
• The fact that, in the last tender Of debt in February pesos, Luis Caputo’s team validated rates above 2.5% Tem.
• The continuity of Large monetary base limit (BMA), which is fixed at $ 47.7 billion since July 2024, compresses system liquidity. “As long as there is no temporary horizon in which the central will make monetary policy again through the interest rate, the risk that interest rates will become endogenous (as the monetary base approaches the bma’s limit) will persist and that, therefore, therefore, The real rate is tendentially pressured up “he warned.

IEB agreed with these factors and added the exchange factor: “There could be a DISASSEMBLY OF POSITIONS IN PESOS product of the rise of financial exchange rates that eroded returns in dollars of those who were making ‘Carry’.

In that sense, the SBS group He highlighted the importance of curbing the rebound of fees: “It is key to continue with the reduction of the financial cost of the instruments issued by the Treasurysince It is necessary to limit as much as possible the rate of growth of the debt stock in pesos so that this will press as little as possible when leaving the stocksand the impact on the exchange rate is lower. Therefore, we repeat that in context of phase 2 of monetary policy, a liquidity in pesos of the system shown ‘Tight’ presses on short market rates and prevents reducing that financial cost of issuing short papers, as happened in the last tenders. ”