The market adjusted up the exchange rate prices, both from March to July, and for the next 12 months, although it cut the forecast by the end of the year.
The City Gurús The forecasts of the official dollar, Both from March to July, and for the next 12 months, although they cut the forecast for the end of the year, as can be seen from the survey of market expectations (REM) of February, published Monday by the Central Bank (BCRA).
This way, In 2025 the projections of a new exchange rate appreciation are maintained, since the annual rise of the American ticket is estimated around 18%, Below the forecast of inflation for the same period, that is calculated above the 23%.
For the third month of the year, the median of the projections of the nominal exchange rate of the REM located in $ 1,069 on average (+$ 3.1 against the previous REM), with which the BCRA It will comply with the 1%monthly rise.
REM dollar 2025.jpg
In addition, market gurus are committed to the fulfillment of the “Crawling Peg” of 1% Between March and August, with an official dollar to $ 1,124 In the eighth month of the year.
Facing the end of the year, they hope The dollar closes below $ 1,200 And it is located in $ 1,175, about $ 25 less than previous survey, which implies a breakthrough 18.1% throughout the year, that is, a more limited variation than the projected inflation by 2025 in the 23.3%.
Finally, the market adjusted up to $ 72, exchange rate estimates for the next 12 months (February 2026)that awaits him in $ 1,287. That is, project a price acceleration in the first two months of 2026 (about 10%), already without exchange stock, according to what the same president promised Javier Milei.
Dollar for 2025:
- March 2025: $ 1,069
- April 2025: $ 1,080
- May 2025: $ 1,091
- June 2025: $ 1,102
- July 2025: $ 1,113
- August: $ 1,124
- December: $ 1,175
- Next 12 months: $ 1,287 (February 2026)
Source: Ambito
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