The Political uncertainty in the United States It is still a pressure factor for short -term markets. However, Blackrock, the largest asset manager worldwide, Consider that structural trends such as the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) can compensate for these challenges. Therefore, the firm maintains an optimistic position on the variable income on a horizon of six to twelve months.
Wall Street: impact of tariffs and monetary policy
As for the commercial policy of the Donald Trump administration in his second mandate, Blackrock strategists estimate that The effective tariff rate could be stabilized around 10%although they warn that the process will be marked by high volatility.
Besides, They point out that political uncertainty and the risk of a possible closure of the US government could affect short -term growth. Given this panorama, the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates in response to an economic deceleration. However, Blackrock emphasizes that the Fed faces a complex challenge: Balance the stimulus to growth with the control of persistent inflation. This limits the magnitude of the expected cuts and reinforces the expectation of interest rates above the levels prior to the pandemic, as well as higher yields in the bond market.
No recession signs
Despite fears in the market on a possible recession, Blackrock does not share this vision. The firm argues that, although job creation has shown some decelerationthe labor market is still solid. In addition, despite less consumer confidence reflected in surveys, corporate results in the US are firm.
According to the manager, Growth growth will not be limited to the technological sectorbut it will extend to other industries and regions as the adoption of AI advances. Although market volatility could increase in the short term due to political uncertainty, These factors support their preference for US actions.
Strategy in bonds and interest rates
The long -term treasure bonds showed some recovery due to the fears of recession in the markets. However, Blackrock warns that these assets They do not offer effective protection against falls in actions, since inflation remains a risk factor. In addition, bond yields could rise abruptly at any time.
In this context, the firm indicates that the combination of interest rates for longer, persistent fiscal deficits and a greater need for compensation for risk It could affect the profitability of long -term bonds. Therefore, it maintains an infrapted position in this segment and prefers in the short -term debt to capture income.
European panorama: higher expense and higher rates
In Europe, Blackrock emphasizes that the increase in defense and infrastructure spending in Germany marks a significant turn in fiscal policy. German bonds have suffered their greatest fall since 1990 after the announcement of an infrastructure fund of 500,000 million euros and the elimination of deficit limits in military spending. This measure will vote in Parliament next week, in a context in which the US made it clear that Europe It is no longer its highest priority in security.
Additionally, the European Union proposed modifications in its fiscal rules for allow a higher defense expense, which could translate into high interest rates for longer. Given the increase in indebtedness and inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank approaches at the end of its rate cuts cycle.
As a result, Blackrock foresees an increase in the yields of the sovereign bonds of the eurozone and maintains an infrapted position in these assets.
Source: Ambito
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