The country risk exceeded 800 points and the S&P Merval scored fourth with the thread in the face of global tension and doubts with IMF

The Bonds in dollars scored a majority of casualties This Monday, March 31 and the country risk exceeded 800 pointsin the midst of the global tension derived from Donald Trump’s tariff policies -which seemed to dissipate towards the closing of the day -and the Doubts that persist about Argentina’s new program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In turn, The S&P Merval suffered its fourth withdrawal, to finish the month on the negative field measured in dollars, conditioned

In that context, The titles in dollars, which had started the wheel with important losses, They closed with casualties and some increases. The most relevant falls were led by the Global 2046 (-2.8%) and the Global 2041 (-0.8%). Meanwhile, the Global 2029 (+0.6%) and Bonar 2029 (+0.3%).

Thus, the country risk measured by the JP Morgan It rose 2.2% a 816 basic points, After touching a beak at the wheel of 867 points, maximum since November 6, 2024.

S & P Merval and Adrs

On the other hand, the ADRs of Argentine companies that quote on Wall Street fell up to 4.8% of the hand of Free market, Supervielle Group (-4.4%), Port Central (-4.2%), and Macro Bank (-3.7%).

He S&P Merval, meanwhile, lost 1.7% to 2,338,760.74 basic points. Within that framework, the roles that fell most were those of Port Central (-3.3%), Supervielle Group (-3.2%), and Macro Bank (-3%).

Local markets during March

The local market began the first quarter of 2025 with a marked volatility. In this context, the S&P Merval managed to close March with a 6% rise in pesos, however, measured in financial dollars (CCL), the index fell 3.1%, located in the 1,776 points. This fall responds to Increase close to 8% that financial exchange rates experienced during the month.

Despite the complex context, some actions of the leading panel had a good performance in March. The biggest increases were for Aluar (+14.6%), Black Loma (+14.3%) and Gas Transporter del Sur (+13.9%).

Dollar bonds: Mild casualty in March, but caution persists

The sovereign debt extended its correction during the third month of the year, although with a moderate decline of 0.6% average, much lower than that observed in January and February. A Contracting, emerging bonds globally (Emb) showed a positive return close to 2% so far this year, which reinforces the idea that the factors behind the local fall are mainly domestic.

The country risk remained up, without clear foundations that justify it beyond the uncertainty generated around the agreement with the IMF. So far, it is known that the program would reach US $20 billion, with a significant initial disbursement of about US $ 8,000 millions. Meanwhile, the BCRA accumulated sales for more than US $ 1,600 million in the last 11 wheels, in a context of disarmament of positions in dollar spot, postponement of exports and advancement of imports.

Bonds in pesos: punishment at the fixed rate and coverage demand

In the peso market, March was a difficult month for fixed rate instruments (LECAPS/BANCAPS), especially in the longest sections. The lack of clarity regarding the direction of the official exchange rate, added to devaluation expectations, generated a Strong demand for coverage, promoting up the rates implicit in futures.

This caused a reconfiguration of portfolios that impacted fully on the instruments issued by the Treasury. The fixed rate curve reflected this expectation, with a positive slope and yields close to 3% monthly effective (TEM) in longer maturities.

For its part, CER bonds also suffered falls, especially maturities at 2026 and 2027, in a context of rise in the real rate. However, the Treasury managed to close the month by renewing 100% of the maturities, which totaled $ 9.2 billion, with a demand highlighted by dollar Linked instruments.