The City operators expect the weight to devalue at least 15% as of this Monday and the dollar saves the current $ 1,078 (wholesaler) towards the area of $ 1,300/$ 1,340, Near the financial exchange rate, which would imply a rise in the currency of between 20% and 25%. In that sense, the BCRA indicated that “It will promote the free flotation of the exchange rate between the limits established for the regime”, although “you can consider the Purchase of dollars depending on their macroeconomic objectives and accumulation of international reserves (RIN), as well as the sale of dollars to morigue unusual volatility “. That is, the intervention of the BCRA It will not only be activated in the event that the exchange rate approaches the floor or the roof of the band. It is also worth mentioning that when you buy currencies, There will be no sterilization of pesos, since it is assumed that such intervention has as its counterpart an increase in the demand for money.
Meanwhile, the government tried to take peace of mind in the announcement and Caputo said that “It is not a devaluation”but one “floatation”. “A devaluation is when you guarantee a minimum of the exchange rate, we are not doing it. It may be that from here to one year the dollar is worth $ 970,” he said.
However, Analysts claim that in a bands scheme, with floor and roof, it is most likely that the official dollar converges next Monday towards the highest prices on the market, as is currently the value of “counted with liquidation”, which this Friday closed in $ 1,340. This will also have an implication in April inflation, after the acceleration of March.
Official dollar: How much could you open next Monday?
For the economist Martín Kalos, The logical thing would be that The dollar goes to rise to $ 1,400. “I understand that the government has some claim that As dollars enter the reserves, it is calmed down, it can be reduced And to be effectively between the bands, “he explained in dialogue with Scope.
However, it also included the international variable to achieve that goal: “It depends too much on what happens to the world, how to follow the commercial war between China and the United States because This volatility is at dollar price here in Argentina“. He also added that local economic variables such as inflation will play a key role, which in March had a new acceleration.
Kalos provides that the official dollar could jump from the current $ 1,078 for sale (wholesale price of closing this Friday) to $ 1,300which would also imply an inflationary increase during April.
For its part, Federico Glustein agreed that the official dollar could go between $ 1,250 and $ 1,300although in this case it would be something below the parallels. He said he would have a “strong initial demand” around US $ 1,500 YU $ 2,000 million operation. “Especially since the first disbursement covers a part, but then stabilizes. Although in this context it may not be enough, above all, post elimination of the Blend and with less viability to go to parallels that will probably be something above the officer but less than 5%, “he warned.
In that case, he predicted that April inflation could exceed 5%, although it will depend on the value in which the official dollar is stabilized and how it impacts food and other items. Therefore, once again, the Argentines will become poorer, with a new devaluation of the weight and a price acceleration, which will not be as extreme as that of December 2023, but that threatens to hit the workers’ pocket.
Meanwhile, the economist Gustavo Ber He cataloged the “positive” ads and hopes that he will also move to the reaction of the markets next Monday, which has already been anticipated through the ADRs in the “After Market”.
For the specialist, The dollar will open in the $ 1,250 and $ 1,300 band, But “it could be deflated from the hand of an accelerated export settlement.” Despite this, Redrado said that exporters could liquidate only the fair and necessary due to low international prices.
“Depending on such exchange dynamics, it would be short-term pricing, and I see no risks that the band is running in the current economic-financial context,” said Ber.
Source: Ambito
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