Dollar between bands, day 2: The exchange rate seeks balance, the gap is compressed and the “Carry Trade” appears

After the devaluation of this Monday for the flexibility of the stocks, the Official exchange rate increased on Tuesday to $ 1,233.89. For its part, The wholesale dollar increased $ 2 and was $ 1,200. As for the Banco Nación, the retail currency quoted at $ 1,230. Economists highlight the “calm” of the operation, and warn by A renewed “Carry Trade” because the rates in pesos are above the implicit of the future dollar.

Although some economists anticipated a more pronounced leap with the implementation of the new scheme, The exchange rate remained around $ 1,200 During Monday, which implied a jump of more than 11%. In this scenario, the objective of the IMF is that the price approaches a market balance value, that is, one determined by the free interaction between supply and demand. Analysts expect that, over the days, the price will stabilize in the strip of $ 1,200 to $ 1,300 per dollar.

As for the Blue dollar, closed without changes to $ 1,285 for sale, according to the City operators consulted by Scope. Monday, the informal dollar experienced a fall in $ 95 (-6.6%)marking its greatest descent Since December 14, 2023 (-7.5%), at the beginning of Javier Milei’s mandate. As for Stock markets, the MEP ended in $ 1,237.90 (-1.20%)and the CCL in $ 1,242 (-1.10%).

“The debut looks quite auspicioushe said to Scope Eric PaniaguaPartner of Dracma Venture Capital Consultingand expanded: “He failed Government has reasons to be more than in accordance with the development so far“

The expert said he believes he appeared A genuine offer in the first two wheels and that In $ 1,200 “a balance value that seems quite fair” began to appear. This, he warned, It does not mean that in the coming weeks “let’s not see volatility” and that this fluctuation that the Government also seeks between $ 1,000 and the $ 1,400 “continues to materialize.”

Official dollar, the flotation between bands and the gap with the parallels

In talk with scope, Andrés Reschini, of F2 Financial solutionsanalyzed this second day: “We barely travel the second wheel and For now it seems that the market moves without shocks. The rates in pesos were located above the rates implicit in futures And this can be Propician for the ‘Carry’ encouraging liquidation and therefore more compression in the exchange gap. “

Anyway, he said, that this new scheme carries “Very little time in progress and is still very closely observed throughout the market.”

Juan Manuel Francochief economist SBS grouphe assured his turn that, short -term, he believes that it will be fundamental “A good anchoring of expectations that allow to avoid disruptive movements in the future.” Another point to monitor, he explained, will be Agro liquidation in full harvestafter the Blend dollar elimination.

For its part, the economist Gustavo Ber analyzed: “The official dollar starts the new exchange scheme with calmand even some operators anticipate that It could descend in the short term from a strong rebound in export liquidation and a renewed appetite towards the ‘Carry-Trade’ “.

This expert also stressed that The rates in pesos are again located above the implicit of the dollar futureswhich would leave the exchange square in front of a surplus dollar flow that could lead to “An appreciation of the peso, which would bring the dollar closer to the lower band and this would accelerate the purchase of BCRA reserves.”

Will the Central Bank buy reservations?

For the economist Amilcar Collante, the base scenario that is comfortable for the government is $ 1,200/$ 1,250and this level is key to avoiding a strong transfer at prices. He also explained that for these wheels The BCRA could begin to be more active and start acquiring dollars. The reason is clear: the agreement with the IMF includes a demanding goal of accumulation of reservations. “I should take advantage of this stage of the year in which the thick harvest of agriculture to buy is settled”he added.

Another factor that accompanies the transition is the adjustment in monetary policy. Although the nominal rate was not modified, there was an “indirect rise in the interest rate because it now controls the monetary aggregates of the Central Bank”which represents an incentive to maintain investments in pesos, explained the expert.

As to what could come, Collante ruled out that The dollar can go to the floor of the $ 1,000 band. “I don’t think the central bank allows the dollar to go so down in this scheme. Less that I don’t see much logic,” he said, because A dollar too low discourages the liquidation by agriculture and complicates the accumulation of reserves. “Minimum is going to be the Blend dollar for the exporter that was in force on Friday before all this, which was $ 1.130”he recalled.