According to the ex -male of Milei the most appropriate time to deactivate the stocks would have been at the end of 2024.
The economist Fausto Spotorno celebrated the end of exchange rate and the implementation of the New flotation scheme Between bands, but warned that the measure arrived in a less timely time than the one that had appeared months ago. In addition, he said about the future of the dollar, the intervention of the Central Bank and the April inflation.
The new exchange scheme: pure or administered flotation?
As part of the Phase 3 of the economic program promoted by the government of Javier Milei, Exchange restrictions were eliminated and a flotation system between bands was established, with a $ 1,000 floor and a $ 1,400 roof. The measure was announced after the agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)which unlocked a financing package of US $ 20,000 million to 48 months.
However, according to Spotorno, the most appropriate time to deactivate the stock would have been at the end of 2024. “The ideal moment was December or January. The country risk was lower and inflation came in descent,” he said in dialogue with Radio with you.
Dollar Spotor
Despite this diagnosis, the economist explained that the government needed to strengthen its reservations before taking the step. “They wanted to have the agreement with the IMF closed. Leaving the stock without reservations is very risky. It’s like insurance in case something goes wrong,” he said. He also mentioned that the Executive hoped to close agreements with other multilateral organizations such as the World Bank and advance with the SWAP with China.
Spotorno: “It is not a clean flotation, there will be intervention”
Regarding the current scheme, Spotorno was clear: “It is not a pure flotation, it is an administered flotation.” In that sense, he explained that the Central Bank may intervene within the band to meet the objectives of accumulation of reserves, not to directly control the exchange rate.
“There will be a continuous intervention within the bands. The important thing is that the BCRA aims to add dollars, not set a specific value of the exchange rate,” he added.
He also stressed that the U $ S1400 roof is the most relevant data. “What matters most is the band above,” he said.
What will happen to the dollar and inflation, according to Spotorno
Spotorno estimates that in the next few days a tendency to accumulate reserves by the Central Bank will be observed, which will be key to sustaining the new exchange scheme.
Regarding inflation, he projected that the April index could be around 3%, similar to 3.7% recorded in March. “The first week was quiet and the second gave negative. I imagine an April in order of 3%, with more impact in May,” he said.
Source: Ambito
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