In the midst of a deep change in the country’s monetary and financial regime, The logic of taking refuge in dollars begins to lose strength. Far from what a defensive strategy was for years, today the recommendation that circulates between analysts and investors is clear: You have to buy pesos.
In the first week without exchange stock, the wholesale dollar closed at $ 1,172.83with a monthly rise of 9.2% in April. However, the future dollar to April 2025 is traded at $ 1,152which opens the concrete possibility that the exchange rate continues to lower Until playing the band’s floor, currently located at $ 1,000. This floor is adjusted to 1% every month, which presses the exchange rate towards even lower levels than the current ones.
“Buy pesos, and then invest in Argentina. The market is not going to disappoint”the analyst Salvador Di Stéfano argued in an opinion column.
From the assumption of Javier Milei in December 2023, the MEP dollar rose just 18.2%while Inflation accumulated in the same period exceeds 200%. This means that Inflation advanced 11 times more than the dollar. In other words: the one who took refuge in dollars lost. And that completely changes the rules of the game.
Why do you have to buy pesos?
The government has managed to sustain a Fiscal surpluswithout monetary issuance, paying your debt, accessing international financing and capitalizing the Central Bank. This strengthens weightat the same time that it is projected A single digit inflation in the short term.
Meanwhile, the rates in pesos They are still more than attractive:
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The LECAP They yield around 35% annual effective
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The DUAL BANCAP They project returns close to 40% annual
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The Bonds in pesos They showed a significant appreciation in the last days
Bonds and actions, with potential but under the shadow of volatility
The downward adjustment of the dollar generates distortions in the valuation of financial assets. Actions like YPF fell 3.4% in pesoswhile In the US they rose 10% in dollars. Something similar happened with bonds: the AL35 dropped 3% in pesosbut went up 10.2% in dollars.
Despite this volatility, The bullish potential of these instruments is high. The Al35, for example, pay US $ 2,06 on July 9 And, if it reaches U $ S75 per sheetyou can leave a gain of 15% in dollars in less than 90 daysprovided that the economic program continues to progress successfully.
As for Actionsthe case of View It is revealing: it rose 4% in the local market and 25.3% in dollars on Wall Streetdriven by a new acquisition in Vaca Muerta. Analysts agree that, if it improves the external climate (for example, with a commercial agreement between the US, the European Union and China), and Argentina obtains An improvement in credit qualificationthe Argentine share market could take off.
Conclusions
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The departure of the stock is a clear sign to bet on the Argentine weight.
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The LECAP, BANCAP and Bonds in Dolla They offer attractive yields.
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Argentine actions are still lagging, but the recovery potential is high.
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As the weight continues to strengthen and approach the band of the band (today at $ 1,000), The rates will go downinflation will be moderated, the country risk will yield, and Argentine assets will offer considerable profits.
Source: Ambito
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