Dollar Blue in May: after the strong fall of April, will it remain cheaper than the officer or will the gap again expand?

He Blue dollar fell $ 140 (-10.6%) in April and closed in $ 1,185 for sale in a month marked by the debut of New exchange scheme and the FLEXIBILIZATION OF THE CEPO. The informal currency starts May near its lower value since December and with a minimum gap around 1%. Now the unknown is whether the band’s floor, its roof will be touched or will remain in the middle.

Within the factors that can inject the greatest volatility Blue dollarspecialists highlight the external context, in the midst of global markets by the Commercial War between the United States and Chinawhich generated millionaire losses in Wall Street.

Blue dollar in May: factors that will affect its value

The greatest stability of the parallel currency and also of the wholesaler could reach the hands of the Agro settlements. Once again, the great Savior for stability. Additionally, in May are the legislative elections of the City of Buenos Aires, which will also be key to stability, as well as the April inflation data.

In that line, the economist Federico Glustein analyzed in dialogue with Scope that there is a “degree of volatility” contributed by Large exchange bands -of $ 1,000 to $ 1,400-, the possibility of making “Carry Trade” and foreign reports that recommend investing in the short term and withdrawing.

“I think the exchange scenario could extend the greatest stability of the latest wheels from an anticipated greater offer (field, real investments and ‘Carry Trade’), as well as usually at the beginning of the month private sales to address current commitments,” said the specialist Gustavo Ber.

For its part, Gustavo Quintana, From PR operators, it projects a scenario similar to April, “with casualties that will be infected with what happens in the official market.” “Greater income from exporters are expected and demand does not seem to have enough entity to cause a bullish reaction of magnitude,” he added. However, he said that it is “Speculations” given that “Argentina is a rare and unpredictable country”.

In line with other specialists, Andrés Reschini, F2 financial solutions, agreed that he does not observe a “escalation” nor in him Bluenot even in the other exchange rates, “rather I could go to a stable stage down,” he said.

“The main factor that could impose greater short -term volatility would be the external context, especially in case the tariffs on tariffs would lead to a recession and/or inflationary tensions in the US,” Ber said.

How much could the Blue in May?

The Gaps Of parallel exchange rates, which are currently between 2.2% and 1%, they would continue practically null in this economic -financial context -according to Gustavo Ber– With a blue dollar in a range of $ 1,100 and $ 1,200.

For Glustein they will continue around $ 1,150 and $ 1,230, Without touching the roof or floor of the bands. “Understanding that this dynamic of volatility and ‘Carry Trade’, which reduces the puree to a minimum next to the changes proposed by the Executive – which enables the operation of official dollars – could bring the greater supply of foreign exchange and the Blue would have less incidence,” concluded the economist.