The appetite for precious metal intensified throughout the first three months of 2025, especially from the policies launched from Washington and its consequences, where the ETF funds were great protagonists for the increase in the price of metal.
The gold fever already marked a total demand record in the first quarter of the year by adding 1,206 tonswhich implies an interannual increase of 1% being The highest amount since 2016 for a first quarteraccording to Metals Focus, Ice Benchmark Administration and World Gold Council. Among the main actors, on the one hand, The central banks that bought 244 tons of gold in the first quartera deceleration with respect to the previous quarter but comfortably within the quarterly range of the last three years.
On the other hand, A marked recovery of the entrances of the ETF of Gold It promoted a total investment demand that duplicated, reaching 552 tons (+170% year -on -year) being the highest level since the first quarter of 2022. Also the demand for ingots and coins remained high in 325 tonswhich is 15% above the quarterly average of the last five years. In particular, China promoted much of this increase, registering its second highest trimester of retail investment.
As to The demand linked to the technological sector, remained unranually at 80 tons levels. As experts explain, the continuous adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) promoted the continuous growth of the electronic sector, but uncertainty about tariffs creates a complex environment for the remainder of the year.
While The demand for gold jewels fell dramatically into a record price environment: The volumes reached its lowest level since the demand was stopped by the COVID-19 in 2020. In terms of value, consumer spending on gold jewels grew 9% year-on-year to US $ 35,000 million.
Tariffs, uncertainty, volatility and dollar: keys to the gold rise
In this context, the price of Gold LBMA continued marking multiple new historical maximums for 2025 thus the quarterly average price reached US $ 2,860 ounce in the first quarter, which represents an increase of 38% interannual. Analysts emphasize that Among the key factors that promoted the increase in the price of gold, the spectrum of American tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, stock market volatility and the weakness of the dollar stands out.
According to Metals Focus, Ice Benchmark Administration and World Gold Council, in terms of value, almost equalized the record of the fourth quarter of US $ 11,000 million. The slight rebound in demand volumes resulted in an interannual increase of 40% in the value, due to price increase.
On the side of the total gold supply of the first quarter there is an increase of 1% year -on -year, reaching the 1,206 tons. As for mining production there was a slight increase that allowed him to reach a record of 856 tons in the first quarter. In contrast, recycling decreased by 1% year -on -year, since consumers retained their gold with the hope of a price increase.
Recalculating projections: Gold investment will continue
With respect to OTC investments and stock fluctuations, analysts point out that they were negative in the first quarter: institutional and high -equity investors maintained a strong interest in gold, but this was counteracted by other factors, such as fluctuations at the levels of shares and a probable change in investor approach, passing from OTC to the ETC.
Given the new economic context of risk and uncertainty Experts have recalculated their projections for the rest of the year and expect the investment to continue charging impulse due to the risks of short -term stagflation, the risk of medium -term recession, the high correlations between actions and bonds, an expected acceleration of the American deficit and the persistence of geopolitical tensions. While jewelry will weaken more than expected due to lower growth and higher prices than expected, and the demand for technology will slowly slow down due to the decrease in world growth, but will remain within a healthy range due to the demand related to AI. The purchase of ingots and coins will remain resilient since geopolitical risk reasons are attenuated by sensitivity to price increase.
Source: Ambito
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