24hoursworld

Public debt debate: chronicle of an announced default (Part XVII)

Public debt debate: chronicle of an announced default (Part XVII)

But it had begun and continues, the justification of the means by the ends, Machiavellian pragmatism, the inquisition, the persecution and disqualification, the relaunch of illiterate television hosts and the resurrection of the life of show business with its gossip. all for greed.

Almost everything was false and almost all the liars had a criminal record.. The feigned love for the elderly, the poor, the handicapped and the promise of “zero poverty” ended with a stroke of the pen..

Goodbye to good sense, to the predominance of reason, confidence in Argentina and a fatal blow to the self-esteem of Argentines.

“The logic of NO to Favaloro” returned. TV had begun to entertain and amuse instead of educate. Naturalized, the average is able to pay for entertainment much more than for training, so “bread and circuses”, but without bread. Art and education receded rapidly, books no longer mixed with life, unfinished high school came back. The presumption of dangerousness of those we thought was restored. We are isolated and made invisible, as is the case today. The media today are getting worse every day.

We were looked at with distrust and contempt, as if from above. The ideals, the education, the feelings, the simple life, the plasma, and the short vacations of long holidays suffered. They murdered joy, through an extraordinary display of skill for intrigue, dramatic blows, sudden lies. All the current formulas of the novels that many like to live were used.

A part of the town was Susanesca, Legranesca and Tinellisca.

The pillars of Duran Barba prevailed: lies, depoliticization and ridiculous and vain entertainment at the same time.

A new default was approaching towards the end. In 20019 it would arrive from the hand of Lacunza-Macri, It would have a negative impact on the quality of life of citizens and would mark the beginning of the end of this impunity and shameless power.

In terms of economic activity, what was seen in a year and a half was very bad. Renewed unsupported hopes were launched, imports rose, sales of expensive cars grew, but half of the growth predicted by Miguel Bein, the most successful man of those years, was being projected.

In November and December (after the October 2017 elections) the transportation and gas rate adjustment would come. Consultants friends of power projected an inflation of the order of 22/25%. So in the best of cases there would be a “technical rebound” to return to the same GDP that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner left behind. Two years lost.

Melconian hurled because according to his correct vision of the neoclassical theoretical framework, there were macroeconomic inconsistencies. Fiscal policy was lax and monetary policy tight with high real interest rates. Redrado said that to lower inflation the monetary policy was not enough. The exchange rate was delayed, and it encouraged importing, storing dollars in the mattress, traveling abroad and buying online. Exports fell to 2/3 of the peak and investment to half in a year.

External debt of the public sector to finance fiscal deficit. The BCRA bought the dollars that the public sector obtained abroad and issued pesos so that they went to LEBAC. This policy led to a growing stock of BCRA debt in LEBAC plus repos. They were blind, or did not pay attention to the limits.

The BCRA fixed the interest rate in order to lower the inflation rate, but in theory the amount of money is determined by the market. The market did not want all the pesos issued by the BCRA, so it was forced to absorb the excess pesos by issuing debt in LEBAC. Happy the LEBAQUEROS.

LEBAQUERA’S GREED

“Then Jesus told them this parable: A rich man’s land produced a good harvest for him. So he began to think: “What am I going to do? I have nowhere to store my harvest.” Finally he said: “I know what I am going to do: I will tear down my barns and build bigger ones, where I can store all my grain and my goods. And I will say: My soul, you already have enough good things saved for many years. Rest, eat, drink and enjoy life. But God told him: “Foolish! This very night they will claim your life. And who will keep what you have accumulated?. So it happens to the one who accumulates wealth for himself, instead of being rich before God.” (Luke 12:16-31 NIV)

The growing amount of debt in LEBACs and repos was becoming more dangerous. Many who walked out on time with huge dollar gains that they continue to yearn for. “Sweet silver” from the LEBACS, like those who still grieve thinking about Martínez de Hoz, “one by one” from Cavallo and the dollars they could send abroad.

In multilateral terms, the peso was 48% more expensive than the historical averages, for this reason the current account was increasingly in deficit (more imports and less exports). The fiscal deficit grew, leading to an increase in the capital account due to higher indebtedness from the public sector.

In our country, the neoliberal macroeconomic configuration is not sustainable over timebecause it does not generate rapid economic reactivation, it leads to a growing indebtedness and, it only survives if it is possible to continue taking on debt abroad.

It was difficult in the whole world to find financial gains as attractive as in Argentina and, it seemed that there was still room for the timba to continue, growing the debt that only in Lebacs plus passes from the BCRA reached 11% of GDP. The “blessed Peronist heritage” helped a lot. The public debt of the previous administration was very low.

“Within all this set of problems left by the previous administration, we also left a blessing” “A very low level of debt” (press conference led by Nicholas Dujovne in June 2016).

What was not heard much was that the popularity of Cambiemos was on the decline.

Citizen loyalty is not infinite when it is based on cheap dollars to travel to Miami or Punta del Este. Everything ends when the ruin begins due to the payment of interest and the tragedy of the middle class finding itself in poverty again, for having given itself the pleasure of feeling rich, for a little while.

Graduate Professor UBA and Masters in private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor in Political Science, author of 6 books. @PabloTigani

Source: Ambito

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Posts