In yesterday’s session, soybeans ended at $154,350 a ton, a very good price if one bears in mind that as of July 31 it was worth $104,000 a ton. These additional $50,000 make a big difference, in 1,000 tons that could be the production of some 330 hectares, $50 million are obtained through customs, this changes the life of more than one producer.
However, if you operate with cunning you can get much more. Those who sold the January soybean position yesterday at US$ 369.6 and sold the future dollar for the same month at $715.5, had the possibility of building a price in $ for soybeans of $260,449 per ton. If we write a check and discount it in the market to collect it today, we obtain approximately $180,000.
We must not forget that this result is carrying out a financial operation that has risks, selling soybeans and the future dollar requires putting up guarantees, and in case of increases, replacing guarantees in cash. This may be a dollar head for a producer, but surely not so much for brokers, exporters and financial specialists who move in these territories with great ease.
In this scenario, soybeans in the available market could continue to rise in the coming days. Those who want to sell to stay buying in MEP dollars today get US$ 229 per ton, a figure that is not bad if the great rise is taken into account. that the alternative dollars had.
The rise of the future dollar also generates the possibility of an improvement in the sale of corn. Today the corn is sold in the available market at $69,000. If you sell corn in December, they pay you US$185, and the future December dollar stands at $649, this allows you to build a price in pesos of $120,065 a ton. If you discount the check in the capital market, you can keep a price of $93,000 a ton. We emphasize again that it is a financial operation that requires guarantees and replacement of guarantees if the prices rise.
In both cases, soybeans and corn, we note that there is room for the market to move actively, from the traditional producer who sells in the available market, to the large speculators who seek to maximize their income with forward operations and discounting checks in the market. . We could summarize that there is life in the market.
The government could achieve the objective of achieving the income of some US$ 2,000 million in this context, the reserves of the Central Bank are located at US$ 27,628 million, and could grow to reach around US$ 29,000 million.
The problem is the scarce reserves, but be careful, the monetary liabilities of the Central Bank are very high. As of August 31, they add up to $27.3 trillion, and grow at an annual rate of 147%, when the estimated inflation for the month of August in the last 12 months would be around 120% annually. There is repressed inflation.
conclusions
. – The benefit that exporters have to liquidate 25% of their exports abroad has increased the price of soybeans in the available market, and allows arbitrage in highly profitable future positions for those who want to speculate a little more.
. – Selling corn in December seems like a very good option. For those who are in the value-added business, buying available corn is a very good option since the numbers indicate that the price may increase in the future.
. – For the year 2024, a soybean harvest of 48 million tons and 55 million tons of corn are expected. Argentina will restore the income of dollars to the country in one year, and the problems of illiquidity of dollars should be tempered.
. – The change of government will generate a change in relative prices. If we look at the dollar futures market, between September and October the future dollar increases 12.3%, between October and November 25.2%, and between November and December 27.9%.
. – From the month of January 2024 onwards, the increases in the future positions of the dollar are decreasing and are located in a single digit increase.
. – The dollar future December is at $649 and you are discounting an implicit interest rate of 269% per year. It is the highest rate in the series.
. – It is clear that we are going to an economic scenario of great volatility, with a dollar that will climb very high levels in a context of high inflation. The only protection we have is to invest in inputs, merchandise, capital goods, stocks and property. The Argentine economy has a high level of stock, which protects those who buy merchandise and goods, however, let us not fail to warn that these stocks will have to be digested if Argentina returns to normality, which will make the recessive scenario of the economy in the internal market is longer than many estimate.
Source: Ambito
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